lowpost.net/blog - Observations category

2006-07 Blog Preview Wrap-up

Tue, 31 Oct 2006 06:02:42 GMT

NBA Blog Previews: 30 Teams in 30 Days finally concluded today with 93 Questions (and answers) from Tom at Sactown Royalty. Apologies for not keeping up with the rest of the Pacific Division—travel and illness got in the way.

As many have already observed, the blog previews were quite optimistic as a whole. This is understandable; for many fans, October is the most hopeful time of the year. A few interesting notes about the preview predictions:

The average predicted record was 48-34, which translates to a .585 winning percentage.
3 previews predicted a losing record. The TrueHoop Blazers preview didn't include a predicted record, but could probably be added to this figure as well.
6 previews predicted a year-over-year decline in wins (and 2 of those were for the Pistons).
2 previews predicted a lower win total than the oddsmakers.

I've loaded all of the predicted win totals into a sortable table which allows you to compare preview predictions to last season as well as oddsmakers picks. Click any of the column headings to toggle the sort:

Team	Preview	Last Season	Oddsmakers	Preview Prediction	Prediction - Last Season	Prediction - Oddsmakers
76ers	Passon & Pride	38	34	47	9	13
Blazers	TrueHoop	21	24.5	-	-	-
Bobcats	Bobcat Bonfire	26	33	42	16	9
Bucks	5-Point Bucks	40	38.5	44	4	5.5
Bulls	Blog-a-Bull	41	49.5	55	14	5.5
Cavaliers	YAYsports! NBA	50	49.5	58	8	8.5
Celtics	LOY's PLACE	33	36.5	40	7	3.5
Celtics	CelticsBlog.com	33	36.5	42	9	5.5
Celtics	Celticsstuff Live	33	36.5	48	15	11.5
Clippers	ClipsNation	47	47	52	5	5
Grizzlies	Beale Street Beat	49	38.5	45	-4	6.5
Hawks	Impending Firestorm	26	28.5	37	11	8.5
Heat	Crazy From the Heat	52	51	54	2	3
Hornets	Hornets 24/7	38	40	48	10	8
Jazz	lowpost.net/blog	41	41.5	43	2	1.5
Kings	Sactown Royalty	44	42	50	6	8
Knicks	Bench Renaldo	23	31	41	18	10
Lakers	Showtime	45	42	44.5	-0.5	2.5
Lakers	Jones on the NBA	45	42	48	3	6
Lakers	Forum Blue & Gold	45	42	49	4	7
Magic	Believing in Magic	36	39.5	45	9	5.5
Mavericks	Mavs Moneyball	60	56	59	-1	3
Nets	NetsDaily Blog	49	46.5	51	2	4.5
Nuggets	The Nugg Doctor	44	42.5	51	7	8.5
Pacers	Donning Craig Sager's Suit	41	43.5	43	2	-0.5
Pistons	Detroit Bad Boys	64	50.5	55	-9	4.5
Pistons	Need4Sheed	64	50.5	57	-7	6.5
Raptors	HoopsAddict.clom	27	34.5	42	15	7.5
Rockets	Rockets Blast	34	47	57	23	10
Sonics	SonicsCentral.com	35	34	45	10	11
Spurs	Pounding the Rock	63	56	58	-5	2
Suns	Pohenix Suns Rising, Suns Gossip	54	55.5	60	6	4.5
Timberwolves	I Heart KG	33	36	42	9	6
Warriors	lowpost.net/blog	34	37	35	1	-2
Warriors	Golden State of Mind	34	37	41	7	4
Wizards	Bullets Fever	42	40	50	8	10

Choose Your Own Warriors Preview

Thu, 26 Oct 2006 07:54:55 GMT

The guys at Golden State of Mind will undoubtedly publish an entertaining, informative, and realistic Warriors preview today in conjunction with the 2006-07 NBA Blog Previews. UPDATE: It's up, and features a ton of links in case you didn't realize how amazingly prolific those guys are. Here you have an opportunity to rewrite Golden State history—and this year’s preview—by considering what might have happened if things had gone differently with ownership, the 2002 draft, and Gilbert Arenas.

1. Spring 2002:
Chris Cohan's ownership of the Warriors has coincided neatly with the team's current 12-year playoff drought. He and team president Robert Rowell have become unpopular in the Bay Area as a result of a rocky history and plenty of lawsuits. As sports columnist Bruce Jenkins once wrote, "For anyone known to have an association with the current Warriors owner, Chris Cohan, it's a good day if he hasn't sued you." Other potential owners, including Larry Ellison and The Logo, have made inquiries into the team's availability.

Choice #1: Do Cohan and Rowell maintain control over the team?

Retain the existing ownership and management team.

Sell the team to Jerry West and a new ownership group.

2. Summer 2002:
Mike Dunleavy Jr. was the 3rd- or 4th-best player on a Duke squad that reached the Sweet 16 of the 2002 NCAA tournament. He's skinny, but he shoots pretty well and is a coach's son.

Choice #2: Do the Warriors select Lil' Dun with the 3rd overall pick in the 2002 draft?

Select Mike Dunleavy Jr. at #3 overall.

Draft a younger player with more upside.

3. Summer 2003:
At 21 years old, and in just 1.5 seasons, Gilbert Arenas has already proven himself to be the Golden State's best player. He's lightning quick, can shoot from the outside, drive to the hoop, finish in traffic, and create shots for teammates. Re-signing the 2nd-round pick would require either dumping a bad contract or just looking him in the eye during contract discussions.

Choice #3: Do the Warriors let Arenas leave via free agency?

Let Gilbert leave.

Keep Gilbert.

With the existing management team, we know how this turns out. Your only option now is to bemoan the missed opportunities and ask yourself what might have been.

2005-06
Regular Season:	34-48
Playoffs:	N/A
2006-07 Prediction
Regular Season:	35-47
Playoffs:	N/A

2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview

Last Year's Record: 34-48 (lottery)
Key Losses: Derek Fisher
Key Additions: Don Nelson
Other Additions: Keith McLeod, Andre Owens, Patrick O'Bryant, Dajuan Wagner, Anthony Roberson

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

The Warriors were in the news for several reasons over the summer, but none of them involved actual upgrades to the roster. They tried for weeks to attract Al Harrington, but ultimately failed. They were rumored to be shopping Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy in other deals, but nothing went down.

Financially, there were a few positives: They raised ticket prices, signed a sponsor for the Oakland Arena, and found a taker for Derek Fisher's contract.

Obviously, the biggest move was bringing back Don Nelson, which is going a long way toward helping Warriors fans to ignore the lack of player upgrades. Nelson may not necessarily win more games for the club, but he should keep things interesting.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Heading into 2005-06, the team was marketing their starting backcourt of Baron Davis and Jason Richardson as one of the best in the league. Richardson had another stellar year, continuing his pattern of steadily improving in each of his 5 years in the league. However, Davis took a step back, partially as a result of injuries. After playing in 82 games during his first 3 seasons in the league, Boomdizzle has missed significant time in each of his last 4 seasons. When he wasn't hurt, Baron posted another tough shooting year, posting 38.9% from the field, with 31.5% from the 3-point line.

Regardless of whether Davis returns to his pre-injury form, the squad includes a lot of exciting young players, including Richardson (still only 25), Ike Diogu, Mickael Pietrus, Dajuan Wagner, Andris Biedrins~~, and Chris Taft~~. Many of these guys should continue to improve in 2006-07, and Diogu could conceivably grow into a solid player if he can stay out of the hot tub (and Nellie's doghouse).

The Warriors had the league's 4th-highest pace factor in '05-06, and with Nellie on the bench, this is likely to improve even more. Running doesn't always translate to more wins, but at least it's more fun to watch than Fratello-ball.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

One of the more depressing things about the Warriors is their current salary situation. Dumping the Fisher contract helped, but they still have at least 2 other terrible contracts (Foyle, Dunleavy) and a number of other huge commitments that will limit their flexibility for the rest of this decade.

On the court, Golden State will probably suffer most at the defensive end in 2006-07. The team's defense was below average last year, and Nellie isn't known as much of a defensive coach.

4. What are the goals for this team?

For Golden State, the goal for this year is the same as what they've had for the past 12 seasons: reaching the playoffs. The fan base has remained remarkably faithful during the long playoff drought, and it's probably safe to assume that people would go bananas over a postseason appearance at this point—even if the team ended up getting swept in the 1st round.

Predicted Record: 35-47

2005-06
Regular Season:	42-40
Playoffs:	Lost in 1st Round
2006-07 Prediction
Regular Season:	48-34
Playoffs:	Lose in Conf. Semis

2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview

Last Year's Record: 42-40, lost in 1st round
Key Losses: Derek Fisher
Key Additions: Darius Songaila

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

After the 2005 trade that sent Mike Dunleavy Jr. to the Lakers in exchange for Caron Butler, Warriors fans were hoping that Jerry West would work his magic once again in 2006. In the end, the only significant roster changes this year include the arrival of Darius Songaila (who signed for the mid-level exception) and the departure of Derek Fisher (whose contract expired and was not renewed).

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Led by young superstars Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson, Golden State's backcourt is arguably the best in the league. They both had career years in 2005-06, combining for more than 50 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. Antonio Daniels, who was signed by West a year ago to help compensate for the loss of Larry Hughes to free agency, had difficulty early in the season with coach Eddie Jordan's system. However, by the end of the year, he was starting to show why he had been such a valuable crunch-time player in Seattle. Look for Daniels to play in more 3-guard sets in '06-07.

With all of the offensive firepower, scoring isn't much of a problem for these Warriors, either. Jordan employs a screen-heavy Princeton-style offense which started to pay real dividends last year. Picking up the complicated sets is a difficult thing to do on an NBA schedule, but the continuity of the team's core has enabled a lot of progress.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Depth is probably the biggest worry for Warriors fans. Last year the vast majority of the team's minutes were divided between 7 guys: the Arenas-Richardson-Daniels guard rotation and a 4-man frontcourt rotation of Butler, Antawn Jamison, Troy Murphy, and Adonal Foyle. Songaila provides some much-needed support up front, as it's unclear whether Foyle's body can endure another season with so many minutes played.

After depth, defense is Jordan's biggest concern. Of the top 8 guys, only Foyle is a strong defensive presence. The guards are quick enough to grab a lot of steals, but they also let a lot of opponents into the lane.

4. What are the goals for this team?

The Warriors have lost in the 1st round of the playoffs in each of the last 2 years, and while the competition in the Western Conference is quite tough, the team has high hopes that further development of its young players will enable them to win enough games to secure home-court advantage in the 1st round. If this happens, they'll have a good chance of advancing to the conference semifinals for the first time in decades.

Predicted Record: 48-34

2005-06
Regular Season:	54-28
Playoffs:	Lost in Conf. Finals
2006-07 Prediction
Regular Season:	59-23
Playoffs:	Lose in Finals

2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview

Last Year's Record: 54-28, lost in conference finals
Key Losses: Tim Thomas, Zarko Cabarkapa
Key Additions: Amare Stoudemire (return from injury) Marcus Banks, Jumaine Jones

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

Coming off their surprisingly successful 2005-06 campaign, the Warriors understandably didn't make much of a splash over the summer. They exchanged a few role players—signing free agents Marcus Banks and Jumaine Jones, and letting a couple of backup big men go.

Obviously, the most significant boost will come in the form of Amare Stoudemire's expected return to health. Stoudemire missed virtually all of last season after undergoing microfracture surgery just over a year ago to repair knee cartilage damage. Up until the injury, Stoudemire had improved tremendously each year since being drafted at #3 overall by Golden State in 2002. In 2004-05, he was arguably the MVP of the team, despite the fact that Steve Nash ended up winning the league MVP award.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Point guard is an obvious asset for the W's—they feature 3 guys at the 1 who could probably start for other NBA teams. Leandro Barbosa, acquired in a 2003 draft-day trade, has great quickness and a solid shooting stroke. Marcus Banks played his way into Minnesota's starting lineup last season. And of course, Nash won his 2nd straight MVP trophy last year, this time for leading the team to 54 wins without Stoudemire. It's unclear how many more elite seasons Nash has left ... he's 32 years old now, and his skills will have to decline at some point. But it's safe to say that he has already paid for Jerry West's free agent gamble two summers ago—a huge long-term sign-and-trade contract offer that sent Larry Hughes to Dallas.

Thanks in large part to head coach Mike D'Antoni, offense is another key area of strength. The team regularly scored 120+ points per game last year, which usually left Oakland Arena rocking. With solid scorers througout the lineup (Nash, Jason Richardson, Antawn Jamison, Troy Murhpy, Barbosa, etc.), the Warriors are the perfect complement to D'Antoni's up-and-down style. J-Rich posted career numbers last year, emerging as Nash's favorite target in the open floor and behind the 3-point line.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Injuries and defense are the team's two Achilles heels. D'Antoni worries most about Stoudemire's return (players don't always fully return from microfracture surgery—see Allan Houston, Penny Hardaway, and Kenyon Martin). Nash doesn't help in either area ... he's a subpar defender, and has been injury prone throughout his career. The Warriors have a fair amount of depth, but they can ill afford to lose significant time to one of their big three (Nash, J-Rich, Stoudemire).

4. What are the goals for this team?

Without Stoudemire, the Warriors came within 1 game of reaching the NBA Finals last year. Assuming he can return to his pre-injury form this year, their goal is to go all the way. The big question marks will involve Amare's recovery and Nash's injury avoidance. If both can make it to the postseason relatively unscathed, they'll have a good shot.

Predicted Record: 59-23

2005-06
Regular Season:	56-26
Playoffs:	Lost in Finals
2006-07 Prediction
Regular Season:	63-19
Playoffs:	Win Championship

2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview

Last Year's Record: 56-26
Key Losses: N/A
Key Additions: Amare Stoudemire (return from injury)

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

The Warriors stood pat for another offseason, and it's hard to blame them, given the fact that they reached the Finals last year despite missing Amare Stoudemire. Amare's return from microfracture surgery will undoubtedly give the squad more of a boost than any of the rumored trades or free agent signings would have, anyway.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Simply put, the Warriors are an offensive juggernaut. Last year's big 3 of Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Antawn Jamison scored 29, 23, and 21 points per game, respectively. Throw in a healthy Stoudemire and Troy Murphy, and you could see 105 points per game from the starters alone.

On defense, Golden State's quickness on the perimeter (most notably Larry Hughes and Arenas) enables them to create a fair number of turnovers.

To many observers, the Warriors' continuity over the past few seasons has been another significant asset. Since Stoudemire (drafted at #3 overall in 2003) and head coach Hubie Brown joined the team in 2002, their core has remained unchanged. The ensuing familiarity has helped the team on both ends of the court.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

The Warriors are one of the smaller teams in the league, especially when they feature their 4-guard lineup of (5'5") Earl Boykins, Arenas, Hughes, and Richardson. Stoudemire's return will help, but even he isn't a true center. Fortunately, with Shaq in the Eastern Conference, Yao Ming is the only real offensive threat from the center position in the West.

Fatigue could be another problem this season ... with all of the recent playoff success, the team has also played a lot of games over the past few years. Arenas will be more weary than normal, having starred for Team USA's FIBA gold medal team over the summer.

4. What are the goals for this team?

The pieces are all in place ... the Warriors have a great team, a hall of fame coach, a terrific fan base, and a top-notch front office. Anything less than an NBA title in 2006-07 will be a huge letdown in this fantasy scenario.

Predicted Record: 63-19

2006-07 Washington Wizards Preview

Thu, 26 Oct 2006 06:40:08 GMT

Last Season:	42-40
Preview prediction:	50-32
Oddsmakers:	40-42

The Washington Wizards are the last Eastern Conference team to be covered by NBA Blog Previews. Mike from Bullets Fever offers a great companion/rebuttal to the John Hollinger preview. Of course, he's a bit more optimistic:

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

Mike also laments the team's mediocrity over the past 25 years:

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

It's clear from the chart below that Washington has been through a tough stretch. There are 2 other teams that have also lost consistently over that period, and they're coincidentally up next on the preview schedule:

The Clippers (up Friday) have been the worst, enduring a 15-year playoff drought as well as an 8-year drought since 1977. But like the Wizards, they're on an upswing.
The Warriors are still bad ... much more on them tomorrow.

2006-07 Orlando Magic Preview

Tue, 24 Oct 2006 13:00:33 GMT

Last Season:	36-46
Preview prediction:	45-37
Oddsmakers:	39-43

NBA Blog Previews head north from Miami to Orlando today, where Todd at Believing in Magic sees strength at power forward, point guard, and head coach:

TEAM’S BIGGEST STRENGTHS-It goes without saying but the Magic’s biggest strength lies in the body of Dwight Howard. Howard, who is only playing his third season this year, led the Magic in scoring with 15.8ppg and was second in the whole NBA in rebounding at 12.5rpg. And Howard will only improve as he starts to develop more offensive skills.
Another big strength for the Magic is their point guard play. Jameer Nelson came on strong last season and Carlos Arroyo is such a good backup at the point that he could start for some teams. Not only that but Travis Diener shined in this year’s past Summer League.
Probably the Magic’s most unheralded strength is Head Coach Brian Hill. While Hill is not as hip as other NBA coaches like Pat Riley, he is excellent at developing young talent. Proof of that is his work with O’Neal in the 90’s and now Howard. In other words, he is perfect for this Magic team.

Of course, Hill was run out of town via a player mutiny the last time he coached the Magic, so his moderately successful return was a feel-good story for Orlando fans. In fact, 2005-06 was full of pleasant surprises for the Magic, especially after the Steve Francis trade:

Dwight Howard has become a dominating force sooner than expected.
When you forget where he was drafted, Darko Milicic isn't a complete flop.
When he's healthy enough to play, Grant Hill still has skills.
Hedo Turkoglu is finally living up to his "poor man's Scottie Pippen" expectations.
Jameer Nelson's career isn't turning into Khalid El-Amin's.
Carlos Arroyo is a solid backup—when he's not playing for Jerry Sloan, Larry Brown, or Flip Saunders.

It isn't too hard to imagine the good feelings continuing through the 2006-07 season in Orlando. If they can avoid major setbacks and get some productivity out of J.J. Redick, a return to the playoffs seems likely.

2006-07 Miami Heat Preview

Mon, 23 Oct 2006 15:08:49 GMT

Last Season:	52-30
Preview prediction:	N/A
Oddsmakers:	51-31

Today's 2006-07 Blog Preview focuses on the Miami Heat. Vivek from Crazy from the Heat worries that the defending champs have been partying too much this summer:

“Ugly”…Is the fact that this has been an offseason of nothing but celebration for this returning roster and one has to seriously question how rested this very “aged” team will be come opening season tip-off.
Any Pat Riley coached team will undoubtedly know the word DISCIPLINE, but an offseason following a Championship victory has to tempt even the meek at heart to indulge in activities outside the norm.
The attention, the parties, the clubs, the talk shows, and oh, perhaps the most dangerous culprit of them all, the “fridge”.
You add all of the elements to one of the oldest teams in the league and can’t help but question how they’ll respond.
Will they come out of the gates slow like last year and morph into form when it’s time to play for all the marbles? Possible, but very improbable.
Among other key questions…Will Shaq come into camp in tip top shape?…Will J-Dub’s injury force D-Wade into more minutes than normal following an offseason spent on the court in the World Championship action?…Who knows?…I guess one thing we do know is that this season like any other will start with more questions…But they’ll be questions that only the “Heat” can answer, and questions that only time can tell…Stay tuned.

I think this photo answers the question of Shaq's conditioning, but has he ever reported to training camp in shape? With Shaq, getting into shape is like hitting free throws—he does it when it counts. It worked out last season ... he had worked his way into playing shape by the end of the regular season, just in time for a playoff run.

Of course, as with many of the Miami veterans, his game is certainly on the decline, as we noted here last January. With no major personnel changes, Miami can hope to have Dwyane Wade improve over last year, but most of their other contributors from last season (Shaq, Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, Antoine Walker, Jason Williams) will probably be worse due to age and/or injuries. Given the fact that some of the other elite teams have bolstered their rosters, I tend to agree that the Heat's chance of repeating is slim.

2006-07 Charlotte Bobcats Preview

Sun, 22 Oct 2006 13:33:05 GMT

Last Season:	26-56
Preview prediction:	42-40
Oddsmakers:	33-49

The NBA's newest franchise is the subject of today's NBA Blog Preview: the Charlotte Bobcats. Serena from Bobcat Bonfire explains what hurt the Bobcats most last season:

Last year the Bobcats had to rely on some players that normally wouldn’t be called upon due to injuries. The team was riddled all season with a variety of injuries. The only player to play in every single game last year was Raymond Felton, a rookie at the time. Gerald Wallace, Brevin Knight, and Raymond Felton held the team together like glue at the end of the season, while Sean May and Emeka Okafor watched from the sidelines. Last year, each player who was able, stepped up when they were needed and did what they had to do to help the team.

Injuries certainly contributed to some of the subpar Bobcats lineups last season, but the team's thriftiness was also a big factor. Charlotte paid out just over $33 million in player salaries, which was nearly $10 million less than the next-cheapest team (Atlanta) and nearly $20 million less than Donald Sterling's Clippers. They entered the season with Kareem Rush and Keith Bogans as their primary shooting guards and gave up on both before it ended, trading Bogans for gun fan Lonny Baxter and publicly dissing Rush as they cut him with 9 games to go.

Heading into this season, Charlotte is again on track to spend the league minimum, which is surprising for a team that is trying to build up a fan base. Maintaining future cap flexibility is a worthy goal, but signing a few guys to 1-year contracts isn't going to hurt that. Instead, their marketing strategy seems to involve drafting college stars who are expected to be crowd favorites. This includes Tournament Most Outstanding Player Emeka Okafor in 2004, local products Raymond Felton and Sean May in 2005, and Co-Player of the Year Adam Morrison this year.

2006-07 Atlanta Hawks Preview

Sat, 21 Oct 2006 17:14:51 GMT

Last Season:	26-56
Preview prediction:	37-45
Oddsmakers:	29-53

NBA Blog Previews move to the Southeast division today, starting with the Atlanta Hawks. Chase from Impending Firestorm explains what he's looking for in 2006-07:

I think Atlanta’s season all hinges on the improvement of Marvin Williams. He should see significantly more playing time this season, and it’s time for him to step up and show that he deserved to be the second overall pick in the draft. Josh Smith, Josh Childress and Joe Johnson will all improve, but they don’t have nearly the room for improvement that Williams does. Shelden Williams also needs to step right in and start playing well from the beginning for this young team. If the younger players improve enough, this team can hit 30 wins this season.

In his Atlanta preview, John Hollinger joked that free agent signee Lorenzen Wright was a good fit for the Hawks because, "he's been a Hawk before so he'll be used to playing before an audience of empty seats." Atlanta has placed 28th or lower in attendance in each of the last 4 seasons for good reason—the team has been consistently bad since trading away Mookie Blaylock and Steve Smith in 1999 (see chart below). Of course, Atlanta has never enjoyed much fan support, posting low averages even during the Dominique Wilkins-led glory years.

The Atlanta front office arguably did more harm than good for the second straight summer—this time giving up Al Harrington for a middling draft pick. Last year, of course, the team passed on drafting Chris Paul, then watched the Joe Johnson sign-and-trade blow up in their faces when throw-in Boris Diaw emerged as a rising star in Phoenix and the resulting ownership feud paralyzed the team.

Nevertheless, the team is likely to post an overall improvement for the second straight season, thanks to the continued development of its many young small forwards. As with Portland, there are plenty of young players with potential, so they will return to the playoffs ... someday.

2006-07 Utah Jazz Preview

Fri, 20 Oct 2006 07:25:54 GMT

Note: This preview was written by my brother Gurd, a lifelong Jazz fan who should really consider starting his own blog.

Last Season:	41-41
Preview prediction:	43-39
Oddsmakers:	40-42

Last Season: 41-41
Key Departures: none
Inconsequential Departures: Kris Humphries, Robert Whaley, Devin Brown, Keith McLeod, Andre Owens, Milt Palacio, Greg Ostertag
Key Additions: Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsap, Derek Fisher, Dee Brown
Immaterial Additions: Rafael Araujo

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

Shortly after the season ended, Greg Ostertag officially announced his retirement. In the words of Fred Flintstone, whose image is tattooed on Greg's leg, "Yaba-daba-doo!" Many fans believe Greg actually retired five years ago and forgot to tell anyone.

Next the Jazz proceeded to trade away Kris Humphries, the eighth 1st-round draft pick the Jazz have given up on since 1999 (see also Kirk Snyder, Curtis Borchardt, Raul Lopez, DeShawn Stevenson, Quincy Lewis, Scott Padgett, and Sasha Pavlovic). In a blockbuster move that sent shockwaves throughout the league, the Jazz packaged Humphries and Robert Whaley for ... drumroll please ... Rafael Araujo! The Jazz had originally planned to draft Araujo two years ago and were bummed at the time that Toronto had beaten them to the punch. Not content to watch Araujo’s less-than-stunning performance from afar (he’s averaged 2.9 points and 3.0 rebounds per game in his brief career), the Jazz have now traded for the big man to fill the void left by Ostertag: Token Big Stiff at the Jazz 5 Spot. After I saw the former juicer and Okur fighter play in the Rocky Mountain Revue, I bet my buddy a milkshake that Rafael would play fewer career games with the Jazz than John Amaechi (104). More than anything, it could be wishful thinking on my part (and I was actually a fan of Araujo when he played his college ball at nearby BYU).

Then Chris Mullin called up Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor and begged him to take one of the Warriors' above-market contracts off their hands. Thankfully, O'Connor passed on Adonal Foyle [and Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy — ed.] and decided instead to take Derek Fisher. At least the Jazz didn't give up anything of any real worth to get him: Just Devin Brown, Keith McLeod, Andre Owens, a Sloan-autographed John Deere hat, and Ostertag's personal barber (Mullin was insistent on that final term). Hopefully Fish will add some much-needed leadership and three-point shooting, but he'll be a defensive liability playing the 2 (which is where he'll have to get most of his minutes).

In the draft, though, the Jazz finally got some difference makers. First, they landed high-flyer Ronnie Brewer. At first I thought Brewer was the reincarnation of Kirk Snyder, but after watching him in person he's got a much better game and a much better work ethic. In the second round, they picked up Deron Williams' buddy Dee Brown (a future back-up point guard), along with Paul Millsap. Millsap is a power forward from Louisiana Tech (sound familiar?), and he's a monster on the glass, having led the NCAA in rebounding for the last three years. Millsap may not get too many minutes this season, but he'll be a player in this league for years to come.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

The Jazz are unquestionably tops in the league in the following categories:

Rebounding: The Jazz had the highest rebound rate in the league last year.
Blocks: Led by Andrei Kirilenko, the Jazz had the highest rate of blocked shots in the league last year.
Loyalty to organization personnel: Jerry is the longest-tenured coach in professional sports, and the Jazz even brought back Scott Layden last year, a favorite of Knicks fans everywhere.
Hustle: See Matt Harpring, et al.
Percentage of players with their jerseys always tucked in (Sloan's a stickler about that).
Tears shed publicly by the owner.

Deron Williams will be the best sophomore point guard in the league this year whose name doesn't rhyme with "Swiss Doll." He came to camp in great shape and can now almost fit into John Stockton's old shorts. Kirilenko, the human pogo stick, is a core piece of the puzzle, but he's not a go-to scorer. Offensively, Boozer can be a force on the block, but I think Steve Nash could be a better interior defender.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

The Jazz are unquestionably worst in the league in the following categories:

Quickness: Utah is the anti-Phoenix. The Better Business Bureau is reportedly considering filing a truth-in-advertising lawsuit against the Jazz organization for its "Pure Adrenaline Rush" marketing slogan last season.
Lack of creativity: How many pick-and-rolls (or is it picks-and-roll?) can you run consecutively before the other team figures out how to shut them down in the fourth quarter?
Giving minutes to guys who would have no shot at minutes on any other team in the league. See the list of players we traded away this offseason, along with two guys we kept: Gordan Giricek and Jarron Collins. Each year, fringe professional hoopsters face the difficult decision of having to decide whether to sign on to play in Slovenia, Beirut, or Utah.
Three-point shooting. Utah has ranked among the NBA's five worst three-point shooting teams in each of the past three seasons. Deron's coming along as a perimeter shooter, and Fisher might be able to help a little bit. Mehmet Okur is actually the best three-point shooter on the team, but I don't know many teams that like their center to hang out on the perimeter all night.
Distracting opposing teams with a wild city night life the evening before the game.

Young hopefuls CJ Miles and Ronnie Brewer may be able to help in several of the weak areas above, but they'll undoubtedly have some growing pains. Sloan has always had a win-now mentality, so he often doesn't have the patience to give young guys big minutes.

4. What is the outlook for the upcoming season?

This lowpost.net graph showing Jazz wins by season looks a lot like the mountain in the background of the Jazz logo:

The team has been mired in the lottery valley for the last three years, and Larry H. is becoming increasingly impatient with his "overpaid, pompous twinks." And unlike Golden State fans and Andrei Kirilenko's wife, the Jazz fans aren't willing to dish out a free pass each year. This season nobody wants to hear about youthful inexperience or pulled hamstrings or more time needed to build chemistry. It's the playoffs or bust, baby.

Part of me wants to believe that this team is capable of a 50-win season and the second round of the playoffs, and I think this could be accomplished if the Jazz could somehow convince the Bulls to switch conferences with them. But it's tough to build a good record when you only get to play the Hawks twice a year. This Jazz team has 8th seed written all over them, but at least that's a step in the right direction.

Projected record: 43-39

5. What are some completely unsubstantiated rumors regarding Jazz players?

Andrei Kirilenko is the illegitimate son of Ivan Drago.
Jarron Collins is a big Clay Aiken fan.
Gordan Giricek smokes as many packs per day as Vlade Divac.
Carlos Boozer sued Prince for painting his house purple. Oh, wait a minute, that one's true.

6. Finally, how does this year's Jazz cast of characters compare to the Animal Kingdom?

I'm glad you asked; there are some striking similarities as you'll see below. I've included my take, as well as that of Jazz TV Commentator and noted homer Ron Boone (aka The Booner). You may remember that Chris Paul received 124 of the 125 first-place votes in last year's Rookie of the Year balloting ... Well, the Booner was the one who picked Deron Williams first.

Andrei Kirilenko: Tigger

Booner: The wonderful thing about Andrei is that he's the only one! The Jazz are lost without him, and only Olajuwon has more career 5x5's.

Gurd: He has never-ending energy and he bounces a lot, but sometimes has difficulty understanding how he fits in.

Carlos Boozer: Pig

Booner: This brawny power forward can really bring home the bacon!

Gurd: He's not afraid to roll around in the mud a little down on the block, but when he gets hurt he really "ham"-strings our team.

Cavs fans: Don't ask.

Deron Williams: Chameleon

Booner: He can play the 1 or the 2. How could he not beat out Chris Paul for Rookie of the Year?

Gurd: To Jazz scouts, he did a masterful job of disguising himself as a better prospect than CP3. Plus he easily morphs into alter-ego "Torrey Ellis" when questioned by the Park City police.

Rafael Araujo: Tyrannosaurus Rex

Booner: His brute force and physical play intimidate opponents.

Gurd: This 6'11" former Raptor must have T-Rex arms to average just 0.1 blocks per game last season.

Derek Fisher: Fish

Booner: Fish's veteran leadership will guide us to the big waters of the playoffs!

Gurd: He might feel like a fish out of water getting most of his minutes at the 2.

Mehmet Okur: Turkey

Booner: This Turk is married to a former Miss Turkey. Gobble, gobble.

Gurd: He's got a feathery touch to his jump shot, but he played like a turkey once Boozer came back from his injury last year.

Ronnie Brewer: Rooster

Booner: Cock-a-doodle-doo! He's going to make some noise in this league.

Gurd: His ugly (but surprisingly effective) shot looks like a flapping chicken wing. But this bird can really fly.

CJ Miles: Simba

Booner: CJ is the Simba to hero Ray Allen's Mufasa! Oh I just can't wait until he's king!

Gurd: He's got plenty of upside, but he's still very young and unproven.

Gordan Giricek: Weasel

Booner: He's great at weaseling his way into the lane to get open shots.

Gurd: He weasels away quality minutes from our two promising youngsters: Ronnie Brewer and CJ Miles. Plus he weasels away shots from the entire rest of the team.

Jerry Sloan and Matt Harpring (mini-Jerry): Old Workhorses

Booner: They're tireless in grinding it out the old-school way.

Gurd: They're still beloved in Jazz-ville like trusty old steeds, but neither one has much kick left.