lowpost.net/blog - Statistical Analysis category

Sorting Out the 2001-2005 Drafts

Wed, 14 Jun 2006 13:34:18 GMT

I got an email two weeks ago from Jeff of the extremely popular CelticsBlog.com site, suggesting that we take a look at risers and sliders in the NBA draft—guys whose stock rose or fell in the weeks leading up to the draft. He was wondering whether it would be possible to detect a correlation between rising or falling in the draft and eventual performance in the league. Since the 2006 draft is now two weeks away, this is a timely topic for fans in Boston, Oakland, and most other NBA cities.

For those of you who didn't arrive here from Jeff's site, be sure to check out his post for more background information as well as a detailed analysis of the results. His idea for identifying risers and sliders was to compare actual draft picks with pre-draft projections. I was able to dig up projections using old mock drafts from NBADraft.net (see below for more details).

The last 5 years of NBA drafts are presented below using sortable tables. By default, the tables for each of the seasons are sorted by the difference between actual and mock picks—this means that the biggest sliders appear at the top, and the biggest risers (or reaches) appear at the bottom. You can click the various table headers to sort by actual picks, mock picks, or any of the other columns. The tables include all players who were either drafted in the first 30 picks or projected to be drafted in the first 30 picks.

28 teams passed on Josh Howard in the 2003 draft.

Sorting the tables by this past year's regular season PER rating provides another interesting view (click the 05-06 PER column twice to sort descending). By observing where the top players (so far) were picked, you can second-guess the scouts and executives responsible for each year's draft. The 2001 draft seemed to produce the most unexpected results—as of this season, 3 of the top 4 players were picked between 25 and 30.

Choose a season: 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005

2001

Player	Team	Actual	Mock (5/15)	Difference	05-06 PER
Loren Woods	Minnesota Timberwolves	45	11	-34	12.3
Alvin Jones	Philadelphia 76ers	56	27	-29	-
Ousmane Cisse	Denver Nuggets	46	26	-20	-
Ken Johnson	Miami Heat	48	29	-19	-
Jamaal Tinsley	Memphis Grizzlies	27	10	-17	12.1
Gilbert Arenas	Golden State Warriors	30	19	-11	23.8
Trenton Hassell	Chicago Bulls	29	20	-9	9.5
Zach Randolph	Portland Trail Blazers	19	12	-7	16.9
Jeff Trepagnier	Cleveland Cavaliers	35	28	-7	-
Omar Cook	Orlando Magic	31	25	-6	-
Eddie Griffin	New Jersey Nets	7	3	-4	12.2
DeSagana Diop	Cleveland Cavaliers	8	4	-4	11.5
Michael Bradley	Toronto Raptors	17	13	-4	8.4
Joe Johnson	Boston Celtics	10	7	-3	17.9
Brendan Haywood	Cleveland Cavaliers	20	17	-3	13.8
Eddy Curry	Chicago Bulls	4	2	-2	17.0
Gerald Wallace	Sacramento Kings	25	23	-2	21.3
Samuel Dalembert	Philadelphia 76ers	26	24	-2	14.2
Rodney White	Detroit Pistons	9	8	-1	-
Kwame Brown	Washington Wizards	1	1	0	11.7
Joseph Forte	Boston Celtics	21	21	0	-
Jason Richardson	Golden State Warriors	5	6	1	19.2
Troy Murphy	Golden State Warriors	14	15	1	15.9
Tyson Chandler	Los Angeles Clippers	2	5	3	12.2
Shane Battier	Memphis Grizzlies	6	9	3	14.7
Richard Jefferson	Houston Rockets	13	16	3	19.0
Jason Collins	Houston Rockets	18	22	4	5.5
Pau Gasol	Atlanta Hawks	3	14	11	22.7
Jeryl Sasser	Orlando Magic	22	35	13	-
Kirk Haston	Charlotte Hornets	16	32	16	-
Kedrick Brown	Boston Celtics	11	-	-	-
Vladimir Radmanovic	Seattle Supersonics	12	-	-	13.6
Steven Hunter	Orlando Magic	15	-	-	13.9
Brandon Armstrong	Houston Rockets	23	-	-	-
Raul Lopez	Utah Jazz	24	-	-	-
Tony Parker	San Antonio Spurs	28	-	-	20.8

2001 Summary:
Average 2005-06 PER: 15.0
Average Difference: 8.0

2002

Player	Team	Actual	Mock (5/29)	Difference	05-06 PER
Luis Scola	San Antonio Spurs	55	25	-30	-
Jason Jennings	Portland Trail Blazers	42	21	-21	-
Sam Clancy	Philadelphia 76ers	44	27	-17	-
Rod Grizzard	Washington Wizards	38	24	-14	-
Qyntel Woods	Portland Trail Blazers	21	10	-11	12.4
Curtis Borchardt	Orlando Magic	18	8	-10	-
Chris Jefferies	Los Angeles Lakers	27	19	-8	-
Roger Mason	Chicago Bulls	30	23	-7	-
Kareem Rush	Toronto Raptors	20	14	-6	9.7
Frank Williams	Denver Nuggets	25	20	-5	-
Dan Gadzuric	Milwaukee Bucks	33	28	-5	17.2
Dajuan Wagner	Cleveland Cavaliers	6	3	-3	5.0
Chris Wilcox	Los Angeles Clippers	8	5	-3	17.3
Caron Butler	Miami Heat	10	7	-3	17.1
Yao Ming	Houston Rockets	1	1	0	25.7
Jay Williams	Chicago Bulls	2	2	0	-
Jared Jeffries	Washington Wizards	11	11	0	11.6
Marcus Haislip	Milwaukee Bucks	13	13	0	4.0
Bostjan Nachbar	Houston Rockets	15	15	0	7.2
Mike Dunleavy	Golden State Warriors	3	4	1	12.5
Drew Gooden	Memphis Grizzlies	4	6	2	17.6
Jiri Welsch	Philadelphia 76ers	16	18	2	9.8
Dan Dickau	Sacramento Kings	28	30	2	10.3
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	Denver Nuggets	5	9	4	8.4
Melvin Ely	Los Angeles Clippers	12	16	4	14.3
Nene Hilario*	New York Knickerbockers	7	12	5	15.6
Steve Logan	Golden State Warriors	29	36	7	-
Amare Stoudemire	Phoenix Suns	9	17	8	17.8
Tayshaun Prince	Detroit Pistons	23	37	14	14.8
Fred Jones	Indiana Pacers	14	33	19	11.0
Juan Dixon	Washington Wizards	17	38	21	14.5
Casey Jacobsen	Phoenix Suns	22	48	26	-
Nenad Krstic	New Jersey Nets	24	50	26	14.4
Ryan Humphrey	Utah Jazz	19	57	38	-
John Salmons	San Antonio Spurs	26	-	-	10.7

2002 Summary:
Average 2005-06 PER: 13.0
Average Difference: 9.5
* Injured 2005-06; PER value is 2004-05

2003

Player	Team	Actual	Mock (3/31)	Difference	05-06 PER
Maurice Williams	Utah Jazz	47	17	-30	15.0
Sofoklis Schortsanitis	Los Angeles Clippers	34	11	-23	-
Kyle Korver	New Jersey Nets	51	28	-23	12.3
James Lang	New Orleans Hornets	48	27	-21
Jerome Beasley	Miami Heat	33	24	-9	-
Boris Diaw	Atlanta Hawks	21	15	-6	17.3
Josh Howard	Dallas Mavericks	29	23	-6	19.3
Reece Gaines	Orlando Magic	15	10	-5	7.0
Jarvis Hayes	Washington Wizards	10	6	-4	12.2
Carlos Delfino	Detroit Pistons	25	21	-4	10.6
T.J. Ford	Milwaukee Bucks	8	5	-3	13.1
Luke Ridnour	Seattle Supersonics	14	12	-2	16.0
Brian Cook	Los Angeles Lakers	24	22	-2	15.7
LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	1	1	0	28.1
Darko Milicic	Detroit Pistons	2	2	0	15.2
Carmelo Anthony	Denver Nuggets	3	3	0	22.0
Chris Bosh	Toronto Raptors	4	4	0	23.1
Aleksandar Pavlovic	Utah Jazz	19	19	0	6.9
Zarko Cabarkapa	Phoenix Suns	17	18	1	9.9
Leandro Barbosa	San Antonio Spurs	28	29	1	15.1
Dwyane Wade	Miami Heat	5	7	2	27.6
Nick Collison	Seattle Supersonics	12	14	2	14.0
David West	New Orleans Hornets	18	20	2	19.7
Chris Kaman	Los Angeles Clippers	6	9	3	15.0
Mickael Pietrus	Golden State Warriors	11	16	5	10.0
Kirk Hinrich	Chicago Bulls	7	13	6	15.5
Marcus Banks	Memphis Grizzlies	13	25	12	13.6
Dahntay Jones	Boston Celtics	20	33	13	8.0
Troy Bell	Boston Celtics	16	32	16	-
Mike Sweetney	New York Knickerbockers	9	-	-	13.8
Zoran Planinic	New Jersey Nets	22	-	-	6.9
Travis Outlaw	Portland Trail Blazers	23	-	-	12.9
Ndudi Ebi	Minnesota Timberwolves	26	-	-	-
Kendrick Perkins	Memphis Grizzlies	27	-	-	13.1
Maciej Lampe	New York Knickerbockers	30	-	-	-4.4

2003 Summary:
Average 2005-06 PER: 14.2
Average Difference: 6.9

2004

Player	Team	Actual	Mock (3/30)	Difference	05-06 PER
Ha Seung-Jin	Portland Trail Blazers	46	20	-26	6.9
Josh Smith	Atlanta Hawks	17	4	-13	15.6
Pavel Podkolzine	Utah Jazz	21	8	-13	2.3
Jameer Nelson	Denver Nuggets	20	11	-9	19.5
Sergei Monia	Portland Trail Blazers	23	14	-9	6.3
Andris Biedrins	Golden State Warriors	11	5	-6	13.7
Sasha Vujacic	Los Angeles Lakers	27	22	-5	8.3
Anderson Varejao	Orlando Magic	30	26	-4	14.7
Emeka Okafor	Charlotte Bobcats	2	1	-1	14.9
Shaun Livingston	Los Angeles Clippers	4	3	-1	10.2
Sebastian Telfair	Portland Trail Blazers	13	12	-1	13.0
Tony Allen	Boston Celtics	25	24	-1	12.9
Andre Iguodala	Philadelphia 76ers	9	9	0	14.8
Dwight Howard	Orlando Magic	1	2	1	19.3
Kirk Snyder	Utah Jazz	16	17	1	14.6
Devin Harris	Washington Wizards	5	7	2	17.5
Kris Humphries	Utah Jazz	14	16	2	10.3
Ben Gordon	Chicago Bulls	3	6	3	14.5
Viktor Khryapa	New Jersey Nets	22	31	9	11.6
Luke Jackson	Cleveland Cavaliers	10	21	11	7.8
Al Jefferson	Boston Celtics	15	29	14	16.2
Rafael Araujo	Toronto Raptors	8	23	15	4.5
Dorell Wright	Miami Heat	19	34	15	13.1
Kevin Martin	Sacramento Kings	26	41	15	14.8
Robert Swift	Seattle Supersonics	12	30	18	12.7
Josh Childress	Atlanta Hawks	6	-	-	15.8
Luol Deng	Chicago Bulls	7	-	-	15.8
J.R. Smith	New Orleans Hornets	18	-	-	12.7
Delonte West	Boston Celtics	24	-	-	15.1
Beno Udrih	San Antonio Spurs	28	-	-	15.2
David Harrison	Indiana Pacers	29	-	-	11.9

2004 Summary:
Average 2005-06 PER: 12.8
Average Difference: 7.8

2005

Player	Team	Actual	Mock (6/28)	Difference	05-06 PER
Roko Ukic	Toronto Raptors	41	16	-25	-
Andray Blatche	Washington Wizards	49	24	-25	10.0
Ryan Gomes	Boston Celtics	50	26	-24	14.1
Chris Taft	Golden State Warriors	42	21	-21	15.8
Marty Andriuskevicius	Orlando Magic	44	27	-17	14.0
Danny Granger	Indiana Pacers	17	7	-10	14.7
Francisco Garcia	Sacramento Kings	23	14	-9	10.3
Gerald Green	Boston Celtics	18	10	-8	13.0
C.J. Miles	Utah Jazz	34	28	-6	13.6
Johan Petro	Seattle Supersonics	25	22	-3	10.4
Antoine Wright	New Jersey Nets	15	13	-2	0.7
Andrew Bogut	Milwaukee Bucks	1	1	0	15.2
Marvin Williams	Atlanta Hawks	2	2	0	12.2
Deron Williams	Utah Jazz	3	3	0	12.4
Chris Paul	New Orleans Hornets	4	4	0	22.1
Raymond Felton	Charlotte Bobcats	5	5	0	14.3
Martell Webster	Portland Trail Blazers	6	6	0	11.7
Channing Frye	New York Knickerbockers	8	8	0	18.1
Ike Diogu	Golden State Warriors	9	9	0	15.8
Yaroslav Korolev	Los Angeles Clippers	12	12	0	4.8
Wayne Simien	Miami Heat	29	29	0	11.4
Rashad McCants	Minnesota Timberwolves	14	15	1	12.6
Hakim Warrick	Memphis Grizzlies	19	20	1	11.0
Joey Graham	Toronto Raptors	16	18	2	10.2
Jarrett Jack	Denver Nuggets	22	25	3	12.3
Charlie Villanueva	Toronto Raptors	7	11	4	16.4
Fran Vasquez	Orlando Magic	11	17	6	-
Sean May	Charlotte Bobcats	13	19	6	15.3
Luther Head	Houston Rockets	24	30	6	11.2
Julius Hodge	Denver Nuggets	20	32	12	4.0
Andrew Bynum	Los Angeles Lakers	10	23	13	7.3
Linas Kleiza	Portland Trail Blazers	27	40	13	13.1
David Lee	New York Knickerbockers	30	47	17	15.4
Nate Robinson	Phoenix Suns	21	39	18	12.6
Jason Maxiell	Detroit Pistons	26	46	20	8.1
Ian Mahinmi	San Antonio Spurs	28	48	20	-

2005 Summary:
Average 2005-06 PER: 12.2
Average Difference: 8.1

Choose a season: 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005

Collecting the data for this analysis was made possible through these terrific online resources:

NBADraft.net: for mock drafts from the past five years
The Internet Archive: for access to those mock drafts*
Basketball-Reference.com: for full draft results and 2005-06 PER ratings

* Unfortunately, the sporadic availability of the archived mock drafts resulted in a lot of variation in the timing of the mock drafts from year to year: two were pulled from March, two from May, and one from June.

Lucky in the Lottery

Wed, 24 May 2006 07:54:40 GMT

Toronto won the NBA Draft Lottery this evening, much to the delight of our friends up north. On the flip side, Portland could not have fared worse, drawing the #4 position despite posting the worst record in the league.

It could be argued that the modern draft lottery process began in 1990—the first year that the lottery odds were weighted toward the teams with the worst regular season records. Selections prior to that year were more chaotic, since every team in the lottery had an equal chance of nabbing the top spot. In 1994, the odds swung even further toward the worst teams, presumably to help avoid scenarios like Orlando drawing back-to-back #1 picks in 1990 and 1991. For more details, see this comprehensive history from NBA.com's encyclopedia area.

Using the results of each of the 17 draft lotteries held since 1990, it's possible to determine which teams have been luckiest, and which teams got the short end of the stick over that period. For this study, I calculated each team's expected lottery result for each season as the sum of potential picks multiplied by the corresponding probabilities. Comparing the expected results to the average results provides a good picture of which teams have benefited most from the lottery process. This difference appears as the average boost and average decline for the following tables:

UPDATE: Corrected actual results and differences for 2005, when the Jazz and the Blazers swapped picks prior to the draft. Thanks to Gurd, Lance, and Eric for pointing this out.

Luckiest Lottery Teams (1990-2006)

Team	Average Boost
Spurs	2.3
Hornets	2.1
Nets	1.2
Sonics	0.9
Magic	0.7
Rockets	0.7
76ers	0.6
Pistons	0.4
Bucks	0.3
Clippers	0.3

Unluckiest Lottery Teams (1990-2006)

Team	Average Decline
Suns	(0.9)
Nuggets	(0.8)
Jazz	(0.8)
Wizards	(0.8)
Timberwolves	(0.8)
Kings	(0.6)
Heat	(0.5)
Bobcats	(0.5)
Celtics	(0.4)
Knicks	(0.4)

The Spurs have appeared in just one lottery since 1990, and they made the most of it, winning the top spot despite posting the league's 4th-worst record that season. They were also fortunate to win the lottery in one of the rare years that the top overall pick (Tim Duncan) exceeded expectations.

The Hornets have also fared well in their lottery appearances—getting lucky in 1991 (Larry Johnson), 1992 (Alonzo Mourning), and 1999 (Baron Davis).

Because the lottery is used only for the top 3 picks, with all other teams drafting according to their regular season records, most teams don't have too far to fall relative to their expected results. Still, there are plenty of teams from the unlucky list who are undoubtedly disappointed with their lottery trends over the past several years.

Use the select boxes below to bring up full actual vs. expected breakdowns for each season and team in the following table.

2005-06 Indispensable vs. Expendable

Tue, 09 May 2006 06:40:08 GMT

When Kenyon Martin was suspended by the Nuggets in the middle of their first-round playoff series with the Clippers, much was made of the fact that the team had actually done better in the regular season when K-Mart was out of the lineup (19-7) than it had when he played (25-31). As it turns out, a different member of the 2001 All-Rookie team looked even worse from this perspective for the 2005-06 season ... read on to find out who.

In January, I looked at which players seemed to be having the most significant effect on their teams' performance—positively or negatively. It included players who had averaged 25+ minutes in 10+ games and also missed 5+ games. For this latest 2005-06 recap, I ran the same analysis for the entire season. Of course, without considering other factors like opponent strength and other players' participation, it's impossible to make any true statistical inferences.

Expendable Players (2005-06)

Player	Team	Played	Missed	Difference
Mike Miller	Grizzlies	41-32	8-1	(0.327)
Peja Stojakovic	Kings	11-20	33-18	(0.292)
Kenyon Martin	Nuggets	25-31	19-7	(0.284)
P.J. Brown	Hornets	33-42	5-2	(0.274)
Chris Webber	76ers	33-42	5-2	(0.274)
Brevin Knight	Bobcats	19-50	7-6	(0.263)
Jumaine Jones	Bobcats	23-53	3-3	(0.197)
Marquis Daniels	Mavericks	43-19	17-3	(0.156)
Ronald Murray	Sonics	17-31	17-17	(0.146)
Mark Blount	Timberwolves	14-28	19-21	(0.142)

Miller seems to be most valuable
to the Grizzlies when he's off the court.

Season	Team	Played	Missed
2001-02	Magic	33-30	11-8
2002-03	Magic	22-27	20-13
2003-04	Grizzlies	39-26	11-6
2004-05	Grizzlies	40-36	5-1
2005-06	Grizzlies	41-32	8-1

2000-01 Rookie of the Year Mike Miller tops the expendable list with the biggest difference between the Grizzlies' record with and without him in the lineup. As it turns out, Miller has been extremely consistent in this respect. In each of the past 5 years, his team has had a better winning percentage when he didn't play than when did (see table to the right).

Other Notes:

The 2000-01 rookie class, considered to be one of the weakest in recent history, is well-represented on this list with Miller, Martin, and Mark Blount.
Peja Stojakovic ranked 2nd primarily because of the Ron Artest-led surge that the Kings enjoyed in the 2nd half of the season. Stojakovic's presence didn't translate to much for the Pacers—they posted .500 records with and without Peja in the lineup.
Blount and Flip Murray also switched teams at midseason. Blount's relatively poor record with the Timberwovles can be partially explained by the departure of Wally Sczerbiak, who played well during the 1st half of the year. Murray doesn't have that excuse (he was traded for Mike Wilks and cash), which explains why some Seattle fans would create sites like TradeFlipMurray.com.

Indispensable Players (2005-06)

Player	Team	Played	Missed	Difference
Tracy McGrady	Rockets	27-20	7-28	0.374
Andrei Kirilenko	Jazz	38-31	3-10	0.320
Chris Bosh	Raptors	26-44	1-11	0.288
Zach Randolph	Blazers	21-53	0-8	0.284
Shaquille O'Neal	Heat	42-17	10-13	0.277
Jameer Nelson	Magic	31-31	5-15	0.250
Caron Butler	Wizards	40-35	2-5	0.248
Ron Artest	Kings	26-14	18-24	0.221
Yao Ming	Rockets	27-30	7-18	0.194
Allen Iverson	76ers	35-37	3-7	0.186

Unfortunately for Rockets fans,
this was a rare sight in 2005-06.

Scenario	Record
McGrady & Yao Played	21-10
McGrady & Yao Missed	1-8
McGrady Played; Yao Missed	6-10
Yao Played; McGrady Missed	6-20

With 2 Houston stars missing a considerable number of games, the Rockets deserve special analysis (see table to the right). The team played on track for a 56-win season when both players were able to go, but they could only manage 1 win in 9 games when T-Mac and Yao had to sit.

Other Notes:

None of the top 5 finishers in the MVP voting missed enough games to warrant inclusion in this analysis, although most of them seemed to demonstrate their value. In the games that Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Chauncey Billups missed, their teams were a combined 0-7. On the other hand, the Cavaliers were a surprising 3-0 with LeBron James out of the lineup.
Artest clearly made a big difference for the Kings—enough to get some Sacramento fans thinking about 65 wins next year.
Zach Randolph missed 8 games for the Blazers as well as team picture day. Unfortunately for the team, it looks like their season would have been even worse without him.
Washington 3rd banana Caron Butler may have had the most dramatic return from injury in the league this season. The Wizards lost all 5 games that he missed in April (including 2 to lottery teams). Upon his return, they finally clinched a playoff spot and finished the season with 3 straight wins against playoff teams.

February's Best and Worst Performances

Mon, 06 Mar 2006 08:42:11 GMT

Compared to January, February was a quiet month for individual scoring in the NBA. We saw 3 fewer 50+ point games, 9 fewer 40+ point games, and Kobe Bryant's high score for the month was just 40. Nevertheless, there were several highly efficient performances, including 40+ point triple-double games from LeBron James and Joe Johnson, a 9-13 3-point shooting game from Ben Gordon, and an 11-11 shooting night from Nenad Krstic.

Once again, I've computed one take on the best and worst performances from the past month below. As usual, the ratings are based on John Hollinger's Game Scores formula; see November's breakdown for an explanation.

Best Performances (February 2006)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Shawn Marion	2/22/2006	43	15-22	4-7	10-10	15	0	3	4	2	3	44	44.8	Win
Gilbert Arenas	2/25/2006	30	13-16	7-10	13-14	1	2	2	4	1	0	46	43.5	Win
LeBron James	2/15/2006	54	16-32	0-5	11-15	12	11	5	2	2	4	43	37.9	Win
Joe Johnson	2/24/2006	47	16-24	5-5	3-3	1	13	5	3	4	0	40	36.4	Win
Elton Brand	2/10/2006	45	17-26	0-0	10-10	9	2	4	2	4	2	44	35.3	Win
Ben Gordon	2/4/2006	39	14-21	9-13	2-4	8	5	2	3	3	0	39	34.6	Loss
LeBron James	2/13/2006	41	19-33	1-3	5-8	3	5	0	4	2	0	44	34.5	Win
Jason Kidd	2/22/2006	42	10-13	4-6	4-4	7	11	3	3	2	0	28	33.7	Win
Dwyane Wade	2/6/2006	39	10-17	1-1	13-15	8	8	4	2	2	1	34	33.6	Win
Kirk Hinrich	2/28/2006	46	10-18	2-7	8-10	13	9	3	3	0	0	30	33.4	Win

Especially in the throwback unis,
Marion's game looks
a lot like Larry Nance's.

Shawn Marion landed at the top of the list with a career high of 44 points to go with his 15 rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 blocks. Marion's scoring, rebounding, blocks, and Player Efficiency Rating are up this year, and he's a big reason why the Suns have exceeded expectations to date.

Gilbert Arenas bounced back from a tumultuous All-Star weekend with an amazingly efficient scoring game on the 25th: 13-16 shooting, 7-10 from 3-point range, 46 points in 30 minutes.

The only top-10 performance in February that didn't lead to a win was Ben Gordon's effort against the Suns on the 4th. Despite Gordon's 9 3-pointers made, the Suns scored 21 more points from 3-point range than the Bulls as a team that night.

Worst Performances (February 2006)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Mickael Pietrus	2/25/2006	32	2-12	1-2	0-0	1	0	1	0	4	0	5	-6.7	Loss
Gilbert Arenas	2/15/2006	45	4-22	0-2	4-6	2	3	5	0	6	2	12	-6.5	Loss
Vladimir Radmanovic	2/3/2006	18	0-6	0-2	0-0	4	0	2	1	3	0	0	-5.4	Loss
Monta Ellis	2/21/2006	14	0-8	0-2	0-0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	-5.4	Loss
Mickael Pietrus	2/27/2006	21	0-5	0-4	0-0	3	0	2	0	3	1	0	-5.3	Loss
Keith McLeod	2/5/2006	20	1-6	0-1	0-0	1	0	4	0	2	0	2	-5.1	Loss
Stephon Marbury	2/27/2006	24	1-9	0-0	0-0	2	3	3	0	3	0	2	-5.0	Loss
Aleksandar Pavlovic	2/11/2006	21	1-8	0-3	0-0	1	1	6	0	1	1	2	-4.9	Loss
Brian Scalabrine	2/15/2006	34	1-5	0-2	0-0	0	0	4	0	2	0	2	-4.7	Loss
Jerry Stackhouse	2/27/2006	35	2-11	0-2	3-3	3	0	4	0	4	0	7	-4.6	Win

February's worst performances were all about the Warriors, with Golden State players claiming 3 of the worst five individual games:

At least Pietrus isn't asking us to
call him M-Pizzle.

Mickael Pietrus, who was promoted to the starting lineup over Mike Dunleavy earlier in the month, closed the month with two consecutive bad games--recording a combined 2-17 in field goal shooting, with 5 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists, and 7 turnovers. Back on the 13th, Pietrus dug the Warriors into a hole by intentionally fouling Chucky Atkins with 7 seconds left in regulation and the score tied. After the W's lost in overtime, a hilarious exchange between Dunleavy and an ESPN Radio reporter ensued.
Rookie Monta Ellis played only 14 minutes against the Kings on the 21st, but he managed to take (and miss) 8 shots.

Following up on last month's post: Doc Rivers continued his pattern of riding poor performances, playing Brian Scalabrine a career-high 34 minutes despite the fact that he missed 4 of his 5 shots and failed to notch a single rebound, assist, steal, or blocked shot. At least this was a double-overtime game.

Other notes:

Stephon Marbury's 1-9, 2-point, 3-assist performance against the Spurs came in his 3rd game playing alongside Steve Francis in the backcourt.
You win some, you lose some: Gilbert Arenas had the 2nd-best and the 2nd-worst performances of the month.

2005-06 Size-Adjusted Rebounding Rankings

Mon, 20 Feb 2006 08:40:21 GMT

Nate Robinson rebounds well
for his size, too.

Last October, I developed a way of evaluating who would be the best (and worst) rebounders in the league if size weren't a factor, and posted results from the 2004-05 season. With the subject of size bubbling up as a common theme from All-Star Saturday (Dirk Nowitzki became the tallest 3 Point Shootout winner, and it really looked like Nate Robinson became the shortest Dunk Contest winner), this seems to be as good a time as any to look at 2005-06 results.

Paraphrasing my previous post:

To answer the question of who would grab the most boards if all players were sized equally, I ran linear regression analysis against NBA boxscores from the 2001-02 season through the 2004-05 season. I came up with a formula to predict rebounding results (as measured by rebounds per 40 minutes) based on height and body mass index (a measure of girth that factors out height).

Given this formula, I was able to predict each player's expected rebounding output, given his height and weight. I then compared these expected results to actual results from the 2005-06 regular season, to determine who has exceeded (or failed to meet) expectations by the widest margin. I then ranked the players by their size-adjusted rate, which is actual rebounds per 40 minutes divided by expected rebounds per 40 minutes. Average rebounders for their size achieve a size-adjusted rate of 100%. All players with at least 300 minutes played so far were included.

UPDATE: As one reader astutely pointed out, simply dividing the actual rebounds by the expected rebounds led to a bias at the top and bottom of the scale, since variation is not uniform. To correct this, I split the players into subgroups according to their size and performed separate regressions for each subgroup. For each player, the difference between his actual vs. expected rebounds is divided by his subgroup's standard deviation to calculate a new size-adjusted score. As a result of this change, there was some minor movement in each table.

Best Size-Adjusted Rebounders (through 2/16/06, min. 300 minutes)

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Score
1.	Bonzi Wells	6' 5"	210	9.21	5.15	3.87
2.	Chris Paul	6' 0"	175	6.28	2.65	3.47
3.	Marcus Camby	6'11"	225	14.59	8.95	2.90
4.	James Singleton	6' 8"	215	11.69	6.50	2.66
5.	Reggie Evans	6' 8"	245	14.01	8.95	2.60
6.	T.J. Ford	5'11"	162	4.89	2.28	2.48
7.	Jason Kidd	6' 4"	210	7.60	5.15	2.33
8.	Ben Wallace	6' 9"	240	13.54	9.22	2.22
9.	Tyson Chandler	7' 1"	235	13.32	10.01	2.14
10.	Shawn Marion	6' 7"	228	11.53	7.37	2.13
11.	Bobby Jackson	6' 1"	185	5.09	3.06	1.94
12.	Jeff Foster	6'11"	242	13.81	10.20	1.85
13.	Joe Smith	6'10"	225	11.91	8.43	1.79
14.	Kevin Garnett	6'11"	220	12.21	8.84	1.73
15.	Jannero Pargo	6' 1"	175	4.29	2.60	1.62

T.J. Ford

Chris Paul

Ranking #2 and #6 on the list for this year are a couple of point guards featured in Friday's Rookie Challenge game: Chris Paul and T.J. Ford. Both of these guys play a lot bigger than their size would suggest, and Paul grabs more than twice as many rebounds as he should. Two other diminutive point guards appear further down on the list: Bobby Jackson and Jannero Pargo. A couple of bigger guards, Bonzi Wells and Jason Kidd, are also faring well.

Also included among the top 15 players: a few rebound-only specialists (James Singleton, Reggie Evans, Jeff Foster), and the last 2 repeat rebounding champs (Kevin Garnett and Ben Wallace).

Worst Size-Adjusted Rebounders (through 2/16/06, min. 300 minutes)

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Score
316.	Justin Reed	6' 8"	240	4.2	8.7	(2.31)
315.	Pat Garrity	6' 9"	238	4.8	9.1	(2.22)
314.	Mark Blount	7' 0"	250	6.5	9.9	(2.19)
313.	Clifford Robinson	6'10"	240	5.6	9.8	(2.16)
312.	Brian Scalabrine	6' 9"	235	4.6	8.8	(2.14)
311.	Gordan Giricek	6' 5"	210	2.9	5.2	(2.12)
310.	Toni Kukoc	6'11"	235	5.7	9.6	(2.02)
309.	Jason Collins	7' 0"	255	7.0	10.1	(2.00)
308.	Kareem Rush	6' 6"	215	3.6	5.6	(1.93)
307.	Vitaly Potapenko	6'10"	285	7.7	11.3	(1.84)
306.	Matt Bonner	6'10"	240	6.3	9.8	(1.79)
305.	Wally Szczerbiak	6' 7"	244	4.8	8.2	(1.75)
304.	Joe Johnson	6' 7"	230	4.1	7.5	(1.73)
303.	Jarron Collins	6'11"	252	7.8	11.1	(1.69)
302.	Antonio Daniels	6' 4"	205	3.1	4.8	(1.69)

The most striking thing about this list is the fact that 3 of the bottom 15 players were involved in last month's big Celtics-Timberwolves trade.

Besides the notoriously board-phobic Mark Blount, the Celtics unloaded worst overall size-adjusted rebounder Justin Reed. In return, they received another bottom-15 rebounder: Wally Szczerbiak. They also managed to retain the 5th-worst sized-adjusted rebounder: Brian Scalabrine. Of the other players involved in the trade, Marcus Banks, Ricky Davis and Michael Olowokandi are also below-average rebounders for their size, and Dwayne Jones hasn't played enough to warrant a rating.

January's Best and Worst Performances

Sun, 05 Feb 2006 07:09:08 GMT

The month of January was filled with super individual performances in the NBA. Besides Kobe Bryant's historic 81-point game, there were 3 other 50-point games (2 more from Kobe and 1 from LeBron James), 22 40-point games, 11 triple-doubles, and a 5x5 effort from Andrei Kirilenko.

Best Performances (January 2006)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Kobe Bryant	1/22	42	28-46	7-13	18-20	6	2	1	3	3	1	81	63.5	Win
Allen Iverson	1/11	44	16-25	1-3	13-17	3	9	5	4	2	0	46	41.3	Loss
LeBron James	1/14	44	18-28	5-8	5-5	7	8	1	1	1	0	46	40.9	Loss
Rashard Lewis	1/11	44	12-18	4-5	17-20	5	2	2	2	3	1	45	38.2	Win
LeBron James	1/21	43	19-35	4-8	9-11	5	8	4	2	3	0	51	37.8	Win
Baron Davis	1/28	39	9-15	2-4	9-11	8	16	0	2	1	0	29	36.3	Win
Chauncey Billups	1/03	43	9-15	4-6	15-17	2	9	3	2	1	0	37	36.0	Win
Elton Brand	1/16	47	10-24	0-0	15-17	14	4	2	2	1	7	35	35.5	Win
Carmelo Anthony	1/23	38	13-16	1-1	10-12	6	3	0	1	1	2	37	35.5	Win
Kobe Bryant	1/19	44	17-35	4-12	13-13	9	4	2	1	4	0	51	35.0	Loss

Kobe's top point totals so far this year:
81, 62, 51, 50, 48, 46, 45, 45, 43, 43

Naturally, Kobe's 81-point game tops the list, with a Game Score that was more than 50% higher than the next best effort. It was the best overall Game Score in the league since Michael Jordan's 69-point, 18-rebound game in 1990.

Continuing the trend noted in last month's post, almost all big games led to team wins, but another huge Iverson performance failed to translate to a 76ers win on the 11th. This time, AI had 46 points, 9 assists, and 4 steals, but his team still lost to the visiting Jazz.

Kirilenko's 5x5 (at least 5 points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks) on the 3rd demonstrated extraordinary versatility, but it didn't yield an exceptional Game Score--that performance only ranked 60th on the month.

Worst Performances (January 2006)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Kyle Korver	1/16	28	0-7	0-4	0-0	4	0	3	0	3	0	0	-7.9	Loss
Luke Jackson	1/14	19	0-7	0-3	0-0	2	1	3	0	3	0	0	-7.4	Loss
David Harrison	1/24	19	2-8	0-0	1-9	5	0	6	0	4	0	5	-7.1	Loss
Othella Harrington	1/11	9	0-3	0-0	0-2	1	0	4	0	2	0	0	-6.2	Loss
Ricky Davis	1/16	45	0-8	0-3	0-0	1	5	2	0	3	0	0	-5.6	Loss
Rasho Nesterovic	1/07	15	0-3	0-0	1-2	1	0	4	0	3	0	1	-5.4	Loss
Hakim Warrick	1/16	9	0-3	0-0	0-2	5	0	4	0	3	0	0	-5.2	Loss
Vince Carter	1/23	29	2-14	0-5	1-2	6	3	4	1	4	0	5	-5.1	Loss
Pat Garrity	1/04	19	0-5	0-3	0-0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	-5.0	Loss
Othella Harrington	1/25	16	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	2	0	3	0	0	-4.9	Win

Believe it or not: Othella Harrington
is still in the league, and has even
started the last 14 games for the Bulls.

January also had its fair share of poor performances, capped by Korver's 28 minutes of futility on the 16th, which now qualifies as the worst performance of the season.

Other notes:

More fuel for Bill Simmons' campaign against Doc Rivers: despite the fact that he was arguably playing the worst game of his career, Ricky Davis logged a whopping 45 minutes in one of his last games as a Celtic.
3 of the 10 worst performances of the month were posted on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
David Harrison's 2-8 shooting from the field on the 24th was bad, but his 1-9 shooting from the line that night was even worse.