Statistical analysis, charts, graphs, and observations from a lifelong NBA fan.

NBA Blog Previews: 30 Teams in 30 Days finally concluded today with 93 Questions (and answers) from Tom at Sactown Royalty. Apologies for not keeping up with the rest of the Pacific Division—travel and illness got in the way.

As many have already observed, the blog previews were quite optimistic as a whole. This is understandable; for many fans, October is the most hopeful time of the year. A few interesting notes about the preview predictions:

  • The average predicted record was 48-34, which translates to a .585 winning percentage.
  • 3 previews predicted a losing record. The TrueHoop Blazers preview didn't include a predicted record, but could probably be added to this figure as well.
  • 6 previews predicted a year-over-year decline in wins (and 2 of those were for the Pistons).
  • 2 previews predicted a lower win total than the oddsmakers.

I've loaded all of the predicted win totals into a sortable table which allows you to compare preview predictions to last season as well as oddsmakers picks. Click any of the column headings to toggle the sort:

Team Preview Last Season Oddsmakers Preview Prediction Prediction - Last Season Prediction - Oddsmakers
76ers Passon & Pride 38 34 47 9 13
Blazers TrueHoop 21 24.5 - - -
Bobcats Bobcat Bonfire 26 33 42 16 9
Bucks 5-Point Bucks 40 38.5 44 4 5.5
Bulls Blog-a-Bull 41 49.5 55 14 5.5
Cavaliers YAYsports! NBA 50 49.5 58 8 8.5
Celtics LOY's PLACE 33 36.5 40 7 3.5
Celtics CelticsBlog.com 33 36.5 42 9 5.5
Celtics Celticsstuff Live 33 36.5 48 15 11.5
Clippers ClipsNation 47 47 52 5 5
Grizzlies Beale Street Beat 49 38.5 45 -4 6.5
Hawks Impending Firestorm 26 28.5 37 11 8.5
Heat Crazy From the Heat 52 51 54 2 3
Hornets Hornets 24/7 38 40 48 10 8
Jazz lowpost.net/blog 41 41.5 43 2 1.5
Kings Sactown Royalty 44 42 50 6 8
Knicks Bench Renaldo 23 31 41 18 10
Lakers Showtime 45 42 44.5 -0.5 2.5
Lakers Jones on the NBA 45 42 48 3 6
Lakers Forum Blue & Gold 45 42 49 4 7
Magic Believing in Magic 36 39.5 45 9 5.5
Mavericks Mavs Moneyball 60 56 59 -1 3
Nets NetsDaily Blog 49 46.5 51 2 4.5
Nuggets The Nugg Doctor 44 42.5 51 7 8.5
Pacers Donning Craig Sager's Suit 41 43.5 43 2 -0.5
Pistons Detroit Bad Boys 64 50.5 55 -9 4.5
Pistons Need4Sheed 64 50.5 57 -7 6.5
Raptors HoopsAddict.clom 27 34.5 42 15 7.5
Rockets Rockets Blast 34 47 57 23 10
Sonics SonicsCentral.com 35 34 45 10 11
Spurs Pounding the Rock 63 56 58 -5 2
Suns Pohenix Suns Rising, Suns Gossip 54 55.5 60 6 4.5
Timberwolves I Heart KG 33 36 42 9 6
Warriors lowpost.net/blog 34 37 35 1 -2
Warriors Golden State of Mind 34 37 41 7 4
Wizards Bullets Fever 42 40 50 8 10

If the average is 48 wins, then the average differential would be minus 7. You can put the KoolAid down and just subtract 7 wins from my prediction. Of course, some are more off than others, but I'm willing to accept the average for my contribution.


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