The guys at Golden State of Mind will undoubtedly publish an entertaining, informative, and realistic Warriors preview today in conjunction with the 2006-07 NBA Blog Previews. UPDATE: It's up, and features a ton of links in case you didn't realize how amazingly prolific those guys are. Here you have an opportunity to rewrite Golden State history—and this year’s preview—by considering what might have happened if things had gone differently with ownership, the 2002 draft, and Gilbert Arenas.
1. Spring 2002:
Chris Cohan's ownership of the Warriors has coincided neatly with the team's
current 12-year playoff drought. He and team president Robert Rowell
have become unpopular in the Bay Area as a result of a
rocky history and plenty of lawsuits. As sports columnist Bruce Jenkins
once wrote, "For anyone known to have an association with the current Warriors owner, Chris Cohan, it's a good day if he hasn't sued you." Other potential owners, including
Larry Ellison and
The Logo, have made inquiries into the team's availability.
Choice #1: Do Cohan and Rowell maintain control over the team?
2. Summer 2002:
Mike Dunleavy Jr. was the 3rd- or 4th-best player on a Duke squad that reached the Sweet 16 of the 2002 NCAA tournament. He's skinny, but he shoots pretty well and is a coach's son.
Choice #2: Do the Warriors select Lil' Dun with the 3rd overall pick in the 2002 draft?
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3. Summer 2003:
At 21 years old, and in just 1.5 seasons, Gilbert Arenas has already proven himself to be the Golden State's best player. He's lightning quick, can shoot from the outside, drive to the hoop, finish in traffic, and create shots for teammates. Re-signing the 2nd-round pick would require either dumping a bad contract or just looking him in the eye during contract discussions.
Choice #3: Do the Warriors let Arenas leave via free agency?
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With the existing management team, we know how this turns out. Your only option now is to bemoan the missed opportunities and ask yourself what might have been.
| 2005-06 |
| Regular Season: |
34-48 |
| Playoffs: |
N/A |
| 2006-07 Prediction |
| Regular Season: |
35-47 |
| Playoffs: |
N/A |
2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview
Last Year's Record: 34-48 (lottery)
Key Losses: Derek Fisher
Key Additions: Don Nelson
Other Additions: Keith McLeod, Andre Owens, Patrick O'Bryant, Dajuan Wagner, Anthony Roberson
1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
The Warriors were in the news for several reasons over the summer, but none of them involved actual upgrades to the roster. They tried for weeks to attract Al Harrington, but ultimately failed. They were rumored to be shopping Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy in other deals, but nothing went down.
Financially, there were a few positives: They raised ticket prices, signed a sponsor for the Oakland Arena, and found a taker for Derek Fisher's contract.
Obviously, the biggest move was bringing back Don Nelson, which is going a long way toward helping Warriors fans to ignore the lack of player upgrades. Nelson may not necessarily win more games for the club, but he should keep things interesting.
2. What are the team's biggest strengths?
Heading into 2005-06, the team was marketing their starting backcourt of Baron Davis and Jason Richardson as one of the best in the league. Richardson had another stellar year, continuing his pattern of steadily improving in each of his 5 years in the league. However, Davis took a step back, partially as a result of injuries. After playing in 82 games during his first 3 seasons in the league, Boomdizzle has missed significant time in each of his last 4 seasons. When he wasn't hurt, Baron posted another tough shooting year, posting 38.9% from the field, with 31.5% from the 3-point line.
Regardless of whether Davis returns to his pre-injury form, the squad includes a lot of exciting young players, including Richardson (still only 25), Ike Diogu, Mickael Pietrus, Dajuan Wagner, Andris Biedrins, and Chris Taft. Many of these guys should continue to improve in 2006-07, and Diogu could conceivably grow into a solid player if he can stay out of the hot tub (and Nellie's doghouse).
The Warriors had the league's 4th-highest pace factor in '05-06, and with Nellie on the bench, this is likely to improve even more. Running doesn't always translate to more wins, but at least it's more fun to watch than Fratello-ball.
3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
One of the more depressing things about the Warriors is their current salary situation. Dumping the Fisher contract helped, but they still have at least 2 other terrible contracts (Foyle, Dunleavy) and a number of other huge commitments that will limit their flexibility for the rest of this decade.
On the court, Golden State will probably suffer most at the defensive end in 2006-07. The team's defense was below average last year, and Nellie isn't known as much of a defensive coach.
4. What are the goals for this team?
For Golden State, the goal for this year is the same as what they've had for the past 12 seasons: reaching the playoffs. The fan base has remained remarkably faithful during the long playoff drought, and it's probably safe to assume that people would go bananas over a postseason appearance at this point—even if the team ended up getting swept in the 1st round.
Predicted Record: 35-47
| 2005-06 |
| Regular Season: |
42-40 |
| Playoffs: |
Lost in 1st Round |
| 2006-07 Prediction |
| Regular Season: |
48-34 |
| Playoffs: |
Lose in Conf. Semis |
2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview
Last Year's Record: 42-40, lost in 1st round
Key Losses: Derek Fisher
Key Additions: Darius Songaila
1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
After the 2005 trade that sent Mike Dunleavy Jr. to the Lakers in exchange for Caron Butler, Warriors fans were hoping that Jerry West would work his magic once again in 2006. In the end, the only significant roster changes this year include the arrival of Darius Songaila (who signed for the mid-level exception) and the departure of Derek Fisher (whose contract expired and was not renewed).
2. What are the team's biggest strengths?
Led by young superstars Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson, Golden State's backcourt is arguably the best in the league. They both had career years in 2005-06, combining for more than 50 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. Antonio Daniels, who was signed by West a year ago to help compensate for the loss of Larry Hughes to free agency, had difficulty early in the season with coach Eddie Jordan's system. However, by the end of the year, he was starting to show why he had been such a valuable crunch-time player in Seattle. Look for Daniels to play in more 3-guard sets in '06-07.
With all of the offensive firepower, scoring isn't much of a problem for these Warriors, either. Jordan employs a screen-heavy Princeton-style offense which started to pay real dividends last year. Picking up the complicated sets is a difficult thing to do on an NBA schedule, but the continuity of the team's core has enabled a lot of progress.
3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
Depth is probably the biggest worry for Warriors fans. Last year the vast majority of the team's minutes were divided between 7 guys: the Arenas-Richardson-Daniels guard rotation and a 4-man frontcourt rotation of Butler, Antawn Jamison, Troy Murphy, and Adonal Foyle. Songaila provides some much-needed support up front, as it's unclear whether Foyle's body can endure another season with so many minutes played.
After depth, defense is Jordan's biggest concern. Of the top 8 guys, only Foyle is a strong defensive presence. The guards are quick enough to grab a lot of steals, but they also let a lot of opponents into the lane.
4. What are the goals for this team?
The Warriors have lost in the 1st round of the playoffs in each of the last 2 years, and while the competition in the Western Conference is quite tough, the team has high hopes that further development of its young players will enable them to win enough games to secure home-court advantage in the 1st round. If this happens, they'll have a good chance of advancing to the conference semifinals for the first time in decades.
Predicted Record: 48-34
| 2005-06 |
| Regular Season: |
54-28 |
| Playoffs: |
Lost in Conf. Finals |
| 2006-07 Prediction |
| Regular Season: |
59-23 |
| Playoffs: |
Lose in Finals |
2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview
Last Year's Record: 54-28, lost in conference finals
Key Losses: Tim Thomas, Zarko Cabarkapa
Key Additions: Amare Stoudemire (return from injury) Marcus Banks, Jumaine Jones
1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
Coming off their surprisingly successful 2005-06 campaign, the Warriors understandably didn't make much of a splash over the summer. They exchanged a few role players—signing free agents Marcus Banks and Jumaine Jones, and letting a couple of backup big men go.
Obviously, the most significant boost will come in the form of Amare Stoudemire's expected return to health. Stoudemire missed virtually all of last season after undergoing microfracture surgery just over a year ago to repair knee cartilage damage. Up until the injury, Stoudemire had improved tremendously each year since being drafted at #3 overall by Golden State in 2002. In 2004-05, he was arguably the MVP of the team, despite the fact that Steve Nash ended up winning the league MVP award.
2. What are the team's biggest strengths?
Point guard is an obvious asset for the W's—they feature 3 guys at the 1 who could probably start for other NBA teams. Leandro Barbosa, acquired in a 2003 draft-day trade, has great quickness and a solid shooting stroke. Marcus Banks played his way into Minnesota's starting lineup last season. And of course, Nash won his 2nd straight MVP trophy last year, this time for leading the team to 54 wins without Stoudemire. It's unclear how many more elite seasons Nash has left ... he's 32 years old now, and his skills will have to decline at some point. But it's safe to say that he has already paid for Jerry West's free agent gamble two summers ago—a huge long-term sign-and-trade contract offer that sent Larry Hughes to Dallas.
Thanks in large part to head coach Mike D'Antoni, offense is another key area of strength. The team regularly scored 120+ points per game last year, which usually left Oakland Arena rocking. With solid scorers througout the lineup (Nash, Jason Richardson, Antawn Jamison, Troy Murhpy, Barbosa, etc.), the Warriors are the perfect complement to D'Antoni's up-and-down style. J-Rich posted career numbers last year, emerging as Nash's favorite target in the open floor and behind the 3-point line.
3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
Injuries and defense are the team's two Achilles heels. D'Antoni worries most about Stoudemire's return (players don't always fully return from microfracture surgery—see Allan Houston, Penny Hardaway, and Kenyon Martin). Nash doesn't help in either area ... he's a subpar defender, and has been injury prone throughout his career. The Warriors have a fair amount of depth, but they can ill afford to lose significant time to one of their big three (Nash, J-Rich, Stoudemire).
4. What are the goals for this team?
Without Stoudemire, the Warriors came within 1 game of reaching the NBA Finals last year. Assuming he can return to his pre-injury form this year, their goal is to go all the way. The big question marks will involve Amare's recovery and Nash's injury avoidance. If both can make it to the postseason relatively unscathed, they'll have a good shot.
Predicted Record: 59-23
| 2005-06 |
| Regular Season: |
56-26 |
| Playoffs: |
Lost in Finals |
| 2006-07 Prediction |
| Regular Season: |
63-19 |
| Playoffs: |
Win Championship |
2006-07 Golden State Warriors Preview
Last Year's Record: 56-26
Key Losses: N/A
Key Additions: Amare Stoudemire (return from injury)
1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
The Warriors stood pat for another offseason, and it's hard to blame them, given the fact that they reached the Finals last year despite missing Amare Stoudemire. Amare's return from microfracture surgery will undoubtedly give the squad more of a boost than any of the rumored trades or free agent signings would have, anyway.
2. What are the team's biggest strengths?
Simply put, the Warriors are an offensive juggernaut. Last year's big 3 of Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Antawn Jamison scored 29, 23, and 21 points per game, respectively. Throw in a healthy Stoudemire and Troy Murphy, and you could see 105 points per game from the starters alone.
On defense, Golden State's quickness on the perimeter (most notably Larry Hughes and Arenas) enables them to create a fair number of turnovers.
To many observers, the Warriors' continuity over the past few seasons has been another significant asset. Since Stoudemire (drafted at #3 overall in 2003) and head coach Hubie Brown joined the team in 2002, their core has remained unchanged. The ensuing familiarity has helped the team on both ends of the court.
3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
The Warriors are one of the smaller teams in the league, especially when they feature their 4-guard lineup of (5'5") Earl Boykins, Arenas, Hughes, and Richardson. Stoudemire's return will help, but even he isn't a true center. Fortunately, with Shaq in the Eastern Conference, Yao Ming is the only real offensive threat from the center position in the West.
Fatigue could be another problem this season ... with all of the recent playoff success, the team has also played a lot of games over the past few years. Arenas will be more weary than normal, having starred for Team USA's FIBA gold medal team over the summer.
4. What are the goals for this team?
The pieces are all in place ... the Warriors have a great team, a hall of fame coach, a terrific fan base, and a top-notch front office. Anything less than an NBA title in 2006-07 will be a huge letdown in this fantasy scenario.
Predicted Record: 63-19