Last Season:	44-38
Preview prediction:	51-31
Oddsmakers:	43-39

The breakout player of the year is going to be J.R. Smith. After escaping the dog house of Byron Scott, Smith is going to be put into a situation in Denver where he is going to get the minutes needed to really come into his own this season. Being placed with the best alley-oop passer in the league in Andre Miller should be a highlight reel all season for the athletically freakish Smith to embrace. The sky is the limit and the situation is right. Still have doubts about this guy’s game? Check out this link, and then you will understand why he might be the steal of this off season.

The Nuggets have been lacking a quality shooting guard for quite a while now, and Smith certainly has the potential to fill that void. However, he's still very young and raw—traits that Denver Coach George Karl historically hasn't embraced. Smith would never have been made available for such a low price (Howard Eisley and a pair of 2nd-round picks) if he hadn't clashed so much with the Hornets coaching staff and management, and Karl has shown less patience than some in this area as well.

Last year at this time, most analysts were picking Denver to nab the #2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. As it turned out, the seed wasn't that far off (the Nuggets ended up at #3), but the team lost many more games than expected, despite Carmelo Anthony's emergence as a budding superstar. This year, expectations have tempered, and not just because of the fixes to the playoff seeding process. It all seems to come down an unusual amount of risk:

• Can J.R. Smith stay out of Karl's doghouse?
• Can Marcus Camby stay healthy?
• Can Kenyon Martin and Karl maintain their truce?
• Can Nene continue his improvement despite the year-long layoff?
• Can the rest of the Northwest Division stay bad for another season?

If most of these questions work in Denver's favor, they'll be in great shape for the playoffs. If not, they'll probably end up with their 4th straight 1st-round exit.