As many have already observed, the blog previews were quite optimistic as a whole. This is understandable; for many fans, October is the most hopeful time of the year. A few interesting notes about the preview predictions:

• The average predicted record was 48-34, which translates to a .585 winning percentage.
• 3 previews predicted a losing record. The TrueHoop Blazers preview didn't include a predicted record, but could probably be added to this figure as well.
• 6 previews predicted a year-over-year decline in wins (and 2 of those were for the Pistons).
• 2 previews predicted a lower win total than the oddsmakers.

I've loaded all of the predicted win totals into a sortable table which allows you to compare preview predictions to last season as well as oddsmakers picks. Click any of the column headings to toggle the sort:

Last Season:	42-40
Preview prediction:	50-32
Oddsmakers:	40-42

The Washington Wizards are the last Eastern Conference team to be covered by NBA Blog Previews. Mike from Bullets Fever offers a great companion/rebuttal to the John Hollinger preview. Of course, he's a bit more optimistic:

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

Mike also laments the team's mediocrity over the past 25 years:

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

It's clear from the chart below that Washington has been through a tough stretch. There are 2 other teams that have also lost consistently over that period, and they're coincidentally up next on the preview schedule:

• The Clippers (up Friday) have been the worst, enduring a 15-year playoff drought as well as an 8-year drought since 1977. But like the Wizards, they're on an upswing.
• The Warriors are still bad ... much more on them tomorrow.

Last Season:	36-46
Preview prediction:	45-37
Oddsmakers:	39-43

NBA Blog Previews head north from Miami to Orlando today, where Todd at Believing in Magic sees strength at power forward, point guard, and head coach:

TEAM’S BIGGEST STRENGTHS-It goes without saying but the Magic’s biggest strength lies in the body of Dwight Howard. Howard, who is only playing his third season this year, led the Magic in scoring with 15.8ppg and was second in the whole NBA in rebounding at 12.5rpg. And Howard will only improve as he starts to develop more offensive skills.

Another big strength for the Magic is their point guard play. Jameer Nelson came on strong last season and Carlos Arroyo is such a good backup at the point that he could start for some teams. Not only that but Travis Diener shined in this year’s past Summer League.

Probably the Magic’s most unheralded strength is Head Coach Brian Hill. While Hill is not as hip as other NBA coaches like Pat Riley, he is excellent at developing young talent. Proof of that is his work with O’Neal in the 90’s and now Howard. In other words, he is perfect for this Magic team.

Of course, Hill was run out of town via a player mutiny the last time he coached the Magic, so his moderately successful return was a feel-good story for Orlando fans. In fact, 2005-06 was full of pleasant surprises for the Magic, especially after the Steve Francis trade:

• Dwight Howard has become a dominating force sooner than expected.
• When you forget where he was drafted, Darko Milicic isn't a complete flop.
• When he's healthy enough to play, Grant Hill still has skills.
• Hedo Turkoglu is finally living up to his "poor man's Scottie Pippen" expectations.
• Jameer Nelson's career isn't turning into Khalid El-Amin's.
• Carlos Arroyo is a solid backup—when he's not playing for Jerry Sloan, Larry Brown, or Flip Saunders.

It isn't too hard to imagine the good feelings continuing through the 2006-07 season in Orlando. If they can avoid major setbacks and get some productivity out of J.J. Redick, a return to the playoffs seems likely.

Last Season:	52-30
Preview prediction:	N/A
Oddsmakers:	51-31

Today's 2006-07 Blog Preview focuses on the Miami Heat. Vivek from Crazy from the Heat worries that the defending champs have been partying too much this summer:

“Ugly”…Is the fact that this has been an offseason of nothing but celebration for this returning roster and one has to seriously question how rested this very “aged” team will be come opening season tip-off.

Any Pat Riley coached team will undoubtedly know the word DISCIPLINE, but an offseason following a Championship victory has to tempt even the meek at heart to indulge in activities outside the norm.

The attention, the parties, the clubs, the talk shows, and oh, perhaps the most dangerous culprit of them all, the “fridge”.

You add all of the elements to one of the oldest teams in the league and can’t help but question how they’ll respond.

Will they come out of the gates slow like last year and morph into form when it’s time to play for all the marbles? Possible, but very improbable.

Among other key questions…Will Shaq come into camp in tip top shape?…Will J-Dub’s injury force D-Wade into more minutes than normal following an offseason spent on the court in the World Championship action?…Who knows?…I guess one thing we do know is that this season like any other will start with more questions…But they’ll be questions that only the “Heat” can answer, and questions that only time can tell…Stay tuned.

I think this photo answers the question of Shaq's conditioning, but has he ever reported to training camp in shape? With Shaq, getting into shape is like hitting free throws—he does it when it counts. It worked out last season ... he had worked his way into playing shape by the end of the regular season, just in time for a playoff run.

Of course, as with many of the Miami veterans, his game is certainly on the decline, as we noted here last January. With no major personnel changes, Miami can hope to have Dwyane Wade improve over last year, but most of their other contributors from last season (Shaq, Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, Antoine Walker, Jason Williams) will probably be worse due to age and/or injuries. Given the fact that some of the other elite teams have bolstered their rosters, I tend to agree that the Heat's chance of repeating is slim.

Last Season:	26-56
Preview prediction:	42-40
Oddsmakers:	33-49

The NBA's newest franchise is the subject of today's NBA Blog Preview: the Charlotte Bobcats. Serena from Bobcat Bonfire explains what hurt the Bobcats most last season:

Last year the Bobcats had to rely on some players that normally wouldn’t be called upon due to injuries. The team was riddled all season with a variety of injuries. The only player to play in every single game last year was Raymond Felton, a rookie at the time. Gerald Wallace, Brevin Knight, and Raymond Felton held the team together like glue at the end of the season, while Sean May and Emeka Okafor watched from the sidelines. Last year, each player who was able, stepped up when they were needed and did what they had to do to help the team.

Injuries certainly contributed to some of the subpar Bobcats lineups last season, but the team's thriftiness was also a big factor. Charlotte paid out just over $33 million in player salaries, which was nearly $10 million less than the next-cheapest team (Atlanta) and nearly $20 million less than Donald Sterling's Clippers. They entered the season with Kareem Rush and Keith Bogans as their primary shooting guards and gave up on both before it ended, trading Bogans for gun fan Lonny Baxter and publicly dissing Rush as they cut him with 9 games to go.

Heading into this season, Charlotte is again on track to spend the league minimum, which is surprising for a team that is trying to build up a fan base. Maintaining future cap flexibility is a worthy goal, but signing a few guys to 1-year contracts isn't going to hurt that. Instead, their marketing strategy seems to involve drafting college stars who are expected to be crowd favorites. This includes Tournament Most Outstanding Player Emeka Okafor in 2004, local products Raymond Felton and Sean May in 2005, and Co-Player of the Year Adam Morrison this year.

Last Season:	26-56
Preview prediction:	37-45
Oddsmakers:	29-53

NBA Blog Previews move to the Southeast division today, starting with the Atlanta Hawks. Chase from Impending Firestorm explains what he's looking for in 2006-07:

I think Atlanta’s season all hinges on the improvement of Marvin Williams. He should see significantly more playing time this season, and it’s time for him to step up and show that he deserved to be the second overall pick in the draft. Josh Smith, Josh Childress and Joe Johnson will all improve, but they don’t have nearly the room for improvement that Williams does. Shelden Williams also needs to step right in and start playing well from the beginning for this young team. If the younger players improve enough, this team can hit 30 wins this season.

In his Atlanta preview, John Hollinger joked that free agent signee Lorenzen Wright was a good fit for the Hawks because, "he's been a Hawk before so he'll be used to playing before an audience of empty seats." Atlanta has placed 28th or lower in attendance in each of the last 4 seasons for good reason—the team has been consistently bad since trading away Mookie Blaylock and Steve Smith in 1999 (see chart below). Of course, Atlanta has never enjoyed much fan support, posting low averages even during the Dominique Wilkins-led glory years.

The Atlanta front office arguably did more harm than good for the second straight summer—this time giving up Al Harrington for a middling draft pick. Last year, of course, the team passed on drafting Chris Paul, then watched the Joe Johnson sign-and-trade blow up in their faces when throw-in Boris Diaw emerged as a rising star in Phoenix and the resulting ownership feud paralyzed the team.

Nevertheless, the team is likely to post an overall improvement for the second straight season, thanks to the continued development of its many young small forwards. As with Portland, there are plenty of young players with potential, so they will return to the playoffs ... someday.

Last Season:	41-41
Preview prediction:	43-39
Oddsmakers:	40-42

Last Season: 41-41
Key Departures: none
Inconsequential Departures: Kris Humphries, Robert Whaley, Devin Brown, Keith McLeod, Andre Owens, Milt Palacio, Greg Ostertag
Key Additions: Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsap, Derek Fisher, Dee Brown
Immaterial Additions: Rafael Araujo

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

Shortly after the season ended, Greg Ostertag officially announced his retirement. In the words of Fred Flintstone, whose image is tattooed on Greg's leg, "Yaba-daba-doo!" Many fans believe Greg actually retired five years ago and forgot to tell anyone.

Next the Jazz proceeded to trade away Kris Humphries, the eighth 1st-round draft pick the Jazz have given up on since 1999 (see also Kirk Snyder, Curtis Borchardt, Raul Lopez, DeShawn Stevenson, Quincy Lewis, Scott Padgett, and Sasha Pavlovic). In a blockbuster move that sent shockwaves throughout the league, the Jazz packaged Humphries and Robert Whaley for ... drumroll please ... Rafael Araujo! The Jazz had originally planned to draft Araujo two years ago and were bummed at the time that Toronto had beaten them to the punch. Not content to watch Araujo’s less-than-stunning performance from afar (he’s averaged 2.9 points and 3.0 rebounds per game in his brief career), the Jazz have now traded for the big man to fill the void left by Ostertag: Token Big Stiff at the Jazz 5 Spot. After I saw the former juicer and Okur fighter play in the Rocky Mountain Revue, I bet my buddy a milkshake that Rafael would play fewer career games with the Jazz than John Amaechi (104). More than anything, it could be wishful thinking on my part (and I was actually a fan of Araujo when he played his college ball at nearby BYU).

Then Chris Mullin called up Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor and begged him to take one of the Warriors' above-market contracts off their hands. Thankfully, O'Connor passed on Adonal Foyle [and Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy — ed.] and decided instead to take Derek Fisher. At least the Jazz didn't give up anything of any real worth to get him: Just Devin Brown, Keith McLeod, Andre Owens, a Sloan-autographed John Deere hat, and Ostertag's personal barber (Mullin was insistent on that final term). Hopefully Fish will add some much-needed leadership and three-point shooting, but he'll be a defensive liability playing the 2 (which is where he'll have to get most of his minutes).

In the draft, though, the Jazz finally got some difference makers. First, they landed high-flyer Ronnie Brewer. At first I thought Brewer was the reincarnation of Kirk Snyder, but after watching him in person he's got a much better game and a much better work ethic. In the second round, they picked up Deron Williams' buddy Dee Brown (a future back-up point guard), along with Paul Millsap. Millsap is a power forward from Louisiana Tech (sound familiar?), and he's a monster on the glass, having led the NCAA in rebounding for the last three years. Millsap may not get too many minutes this season, but he'll be a player in this league for years to come.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

The Jazz are unquestionably tops in the league in the following categories:

• Rebounding: The Jazz had the highest rebound rate in the league last year.
• Blocks: Led by Andrei Kirilenko, the Jazz had the highest rate of blocked shots in the league last year.
• Loyalty to organization personnel: Jerry is the longest-tenured coach in professional sports, and the Jazz even brought back Scott Layden last year, a favorite of Knicks fans everywhere.
• Hustle: See Matt Harpring, et al.
• Percentage of players with their jerseys always tucked in (Sloan's a stickler about that).
• Tears shed publicly by the owner.

Deron Williams will be the best sophomore point guard in the league this year whose name doesn't rhyme with "Swiss Doll." He came to camp in great shape and can now almost fit into John Stockton's old shorts. Kirilenko, the human pogo stick, is a core piece of the puzzle, but he's not a go-to scorer. Offensively, Boozer can be a force on the block, but I think Steve Nash could be a better interior defender.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

The Jazz are unquestionably worst in the league in the following categories:

• Quickness: Utah is the anti-Phoenix. The Better Business Bureau is reportedly considering filing a truth-in-advertising lawsuit against the Jazz organization for its "Pure Adrenaline Rush" marketing slogan last season.
• Lack of creativity: How many pick-and-rolls (or is it picks-and-roll?) can you run consecutively before the other team figures out how to shut them down in the fourth quarter?
• Giving minutes to guys who would have no shot at minutes on any other team in the league. See the list of players we traded away this offseason, along with two guys we kept: Gordan Giricek and Jarron Collins. Each year, fringe professional hoopsters face the difficult decision of having to decide whether to sign on to play in Slovenia, Beirut, or Utah.
• Three-point shooting. Utah has ranked among the NBA's five worst three-point shooting teams in each of the past three seasons. Deron's coming along as a perimeter shooter, and Fisher might be able to help a little bit. Mehmet Okur is actually the best three-point shooter on the team, but I don't know many teams that like their center to hang out on the perimeter all night.
• Distracting opposing teams with a wild city night life the evening before the game.

Young hopefuls CJ Miles and Ronnie Brewer may be able to help in several of the weak areas above, but they'll undoubtedly have some growing pains. Sloan has always had a win-now mentality, so he often doesn't have the patience to give young guys big minutes.

4. What is the outlook for the upcoming season?

This lowpost.net graph showing Jazz wins by season looks a lot like the mountain in the background of the Jazz logo:

The team has been mired in the lottery valley for the last three years, and Larry H. is becoming increasingly impatient with his "overpaid, pompous twinks." And unlike Golden State fans and Andrei Kirilenko's wife, the Jazz fans aren't willing to dish out a free pass each year. This season nobody wants to hear about youthful inexperience or pulled hamstrings or more time needed to build chemistry. It's the playoffs or bust, baby.

Part of me wants to believe that this team is capable of a 50-win season and the second round of the playoffs, and I think this could be accomplished if the Jazz could somehow convince the Bulls to switch conferences with them. But it's tough to build a good record when you only get to play the Hawks twice a year. This Jazz team has 8th seed written all over them, but at least that's a step in the right direction.

Projected record: 43-39

5. What are some completely unsubstantiated rumors regarding Jazz players?

• Andrei Kirilenko is the illegitimate son of Ivan Drago.
• Jarron Collins is a big Clay Aiken fan.
• Gordan Giricek smokes as many packs per day as Vlade Divac.
• Carlos Boozer sued Prince for painting his house purple. Oh, wait a minute, that one's true.

6. Finally, how does this year's Jazz cast of characters compare to the Animal Kingdom?

I'm glad you asked; there are some striking similarities as you'll see below. I've included my take, as well as that of Jazz TV Commentator and noted homer Ron Boone (aka The Booner). You may remember that Chris Paul received 124 of the 125 first-place votes in last year's Rookie of the Year balloting ... Well, the Booner was the one who picked Deron Williams first.

Booner: The wonderful thing about Andrei is that he's the only one! The Jazz are lost without him, and only Olajuwon has more career 5x5's.

Gurd: He has never-ending energy and he bounces a lot, but sometimes has difficulty understanding how he fits in.

Booner: This brawny power forward can really bring home the bacon!

Gurd: He's not afraid to roll around in the mud a little down on the block, but when he gets hurt he really "ham"-strings our team.

Cavs fans: Don't ask.

Booner: He can play the 1 or the 2. How could he not beat out Chris Paul for Rookie of the Year?

Gurd: To Jazz scouts, he did a masterful job of disguising himself as a better prospect than CP3. Plus he easily morphs into alter-ego "Torrey Ellis" when questioned by the Park City police.

Booner: His brute force and physical play intimidate opponents.

Gurd: This 6'11" former Raptor must have T-Rex arms to average just 0.1 blocks per game last season.

Booner: Fish's veteran leadership will guide us to the big waters of the playoffs!

Gurd: He might feel like a fish out of water getting most of his minutes at the 2.

Booner: This Turk is married to a former Miss Turkey. Gobble, gobble.

Gurd: He's got a feathery touch to his jump shot, but he played like a turkey once Boozer came back from his injury last year.

Booner: Cock-a-doodle-doo! He's going to make some noise in this league.

Gurd: His ugly (but surprisingly effective) shot looks like a flapping chicken wing. But this bird can really fly.

Booner: CJ is the Simba to hero Ray Allen's Mufasa! Oh I just can't wait until he's king!

Gurd: He's got plenty of upside, but he's still very young and unproven.

Booner: He's great at weaseling his way into the lane to get open shots.

Gurd: He weasels away quality minutes from our two promising youngsters: Ronnie Brewer and CJ Miles. Plus he weasels away shots from the entire rest of the team.

Booner: They're tireless in grinding it out the old-school way.

Gurd: They're still beloved in Jazz-ville like trusty old steeds, but neither one has much kick left.

Last Season:	35-47
Preview prediction:	45-37
Oddsmakers:	35-47

2006-07 Blog Previews visit the other Pacific Northwest team today: the Seattle Sonics. sonicscentral.com is optimistic that the Sonics can return to their winning ways after a disappointing '05-06 campaign:

I believe the goal for this team is to return to its form of 2004-2005 when they won 52 games and the Northwest Division. While I’m not one to believe they’ll get back to that level I feel they’ve got a pretty good chance to win between 44 and 46 games. They’re certain to get overlooked by national reporters because they didn’t make the big off-season moves. What’s not taken into account is they made their off-season moves at the trade deadline last year acquiring Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson. After those deals they were 14-12 in their last 26 games, which would net the team about 45 wins if extrapolated over a full season. Throughout the year the young big men of the Sonics should continue to improve. Combine that with a much more disciplined work ethic instilled by Coach Hill and the addition to Coach Chiesa to the staff I don’t see why they wouldn’t be able to keep that pace up for a full season. With the way the division looks that might be enough to win them another NW Division title.

Seattle has put up great offensive numbers over the past couple of years; their problem has been on the other end of the court, especially in '05-06. In fact, John Hollinger dubbed last year's Sonics as the worst defensive team of all time. The roster didn't change that much between the two seasons, but when you look at the distribution of playing time, you start to understand the defensive drop off.

'04-05 coach Nate McMillan played offensively-challenged bangers Danny Fortson and Reggie Evans nearly 3,000 minutes (41 minutes per game), whereas '05-06 coaches Bob Weiss and Bob Hill gave them just over 1,000 minutes and shipped out Evans at midseason. On the other hands, offensive-minded guys like Rashard Lewis, Luke Ridnour, and Flip Murray saw more minutes under the Bobs.

In retrospect, it's obvious that McMillan was a much better coach for this team, and it's a shame that the former ownership group let him defect to their I-5 rivals. It'll also be disappointing if the new ownership group moves the club next season. I had the pleasure of witnessing first-hand some of the great Seattle teams of the 90's who were the toast of the town before their recent decline, and would hate to see them end up in Oklahoma.

Last Season:	21-61
Preview prediction:	N/A
Oddsmakers:	25-57

Yesterday's NBA Blog Preview featured last year's league-worst Portland Trail Blazers, and it comes from Henry Abbott at TrueHoop, who is trying not to set expectations too high:

• 20-25 wins is what will happen if the team progresses, but without any pleasant surprises
• 25-30 wins is likely. I mean, come on, with all these promising young players, it would be bizarre not to have any pleasant surprises.
• 30-35 wins is real progress, and means at least some of the team’s recent gambles (for instance Jarrett Jack at point guard full-time, Zach Randolph’s improved mobility, Martell Webster, Jamaal Magloire) must be hitting paydirt.
• 35-40 wins, with this roster, would be the equivalent of winning the championship. They should have a parade. People should shave their heads or something. That many wins, at this stage of franchise development, means the Blazers are on the fast track to the promised land.

If this team wins 35-40 games, they'll deserve a parade, but they certainly won't get one from their current fan base. Portlanders were undoubtedly spoiled by the team's remarkable success throughout the past 30 seasons (see chart below). The Walton-led Blazers won in it all in 1976-77, and then made the playoffs in 25 of the next 26 seasons before entering their current rebuilding phase.

The good news, as Henry notes, is that the team has a lot of upside. You can question some of their recent moves (as the ESPN NBA team did repeatedly on draft night), but it's obvious that they have fully embraced the idea of rebuilding—usually a necessary first step on the road to recovery.

Last Season:	33-49
Preview prediction:	42-40
Oddsmakers:	36-46

The focus of the latest 2006-07 Preview is Minnesota, which is coincidentally where I'm currently spending a long weekend. Superfan Lil Dice of I Heart KG posted the Timberwolves preview earlier today. Interestingly, she sees Kevin Garnett as not only the team's biggest strength but also its biggest weakness:

Garnett- Having the highest paid player in the league limits a team that needs improvement, especially when the team still owes a couple draft picks (what up, Boston and L.A.), has unwanted players with bad contracts, and is approaching the luxury cap threshold. It’s difficult to get KG all the help he needs with little to offer except the player himself.

Minnesota's future contract commitments are ugly given their record over the past 2 seasons—nearly as stifling as Golden State's. The bad contracts that Lil Dice is referring to presumably include Mark Blount, Troy Hudson, Marko Jaric, Trenton Hassell, and Mark Madsen. Combined, those 5 guys are making nearly $10 million more than KG over the next 3 seasons, plus another $29 million in 2009-10.

For an NBA club, it doesn't get much more embarrassing than getting busted by the NBA for an illegal Joe Smith contract, but the past 6 months for the Timberwolves have been arguably just as dubious as the summer of 2000:

• In the last game of the regular season, they shamelessly lost intentionally to the Grizzlies in order to save their 1st round draft pick. Lowlights included Mark Madsen attempting 7 3-pointers.
• Eddie Griffin was caught on film after crashing his SUV into a parked Suburban while drunk and masturbating.
• The team showcased Marcus Banks so much over the last two months of the season, they lost him to free agency after declaring him "the key to the Szczerbiak trade" (link via I Heart KG).
• Mark Madsen got stalked on his blog (link via End of the Bench), and for some reason he has recently added Google AdSense banners to his official site. Does a multi-millionaire really need to earn an extra $10/month for his blog?

Unfortunately for Minnesota fans, the team will need to stop the bleeding soon, or things will get a lot worse (trading KG) before they get better.

Last Season:	44-38
Preview prediction:	51-31
Oddsmakers:	43-39

The breakout player of the year is going to be J.R. Smith. After escaping the dog house of Byron Scott, Smith is going to be put into a situation in Denver where he is going to get the minutes needed to really come into his own this season. Being placed with the best alley-oop passer in the league in Andre Miller should be a highlight reel all season for the athletically freakish Smith to embrace. The sky is the limit and the situation is right. Still have doubts about this guy’s game? Check out this link, and then you will understand why he might be the steal of this off season.

The Nuggets have been lacking a quality shooting guard for quite a while now, and Smith certainly has the potential to fill that void. However, he's still very young and raw—traits that Denver Coach George Karl historically hasn't embraced. Smith would never have been made available for such a low price (Howard Eisley and a pair of 2nd-round picks) if he hadn't clashed so much with the Hornets coaching staff and management, and Karl has shown less patience than some in this area as well.

Last year at this time, most analysts were picking Denver to nab the #2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. As it turned out, the seed wasn't that far off (the Nuggets ended up at #3), but the team lost many more games than expected, despite Carmelo Anthony's emergence as a budding superstar. This year, expectations have tempered, and not just because of the fixes to the playoff seeding process. It all seems to come down an unusual amount of risk:

• Can J.R. Smith stay out of Karl's doghouse?
• Can Marcus Camby stay healthy?
• Can Kenyon Martin and Karl maintain their truce?
• Can Nene continue his improvement despite the year-long layoff?
• Can the rest of the Northwest Division stay bad for another season?

If most of these questions work in Denver's favor, they'll be in great shape for the playoffs. If not, they'll probably end up with their 4th straight 1st-round exit.

Last Season:	40-42
Preview prediction:	44-38
Oddsmakers:	41-41

Michael Redd had a career year last year with the additions of T.J. Ford, Andrew Bogut, and Bobby Simmons, and the development of Mo Williams asa scorer to lessen his offensive load, paradoxically allowing him to take on more of it. Villanueva is a far better all-around offensive weapon than T.J. Ford, and with Mo Williams entering the starting lineup, the Bucks will be able to play 5-on-5 on offense, whereas last year, it was stand around and watch Redd, or T.J. taking an ill-advised jumper. I’m of the opinion that losing T.J. is addition by subtraction, and that Williams will actually be a step up from Ford, despite being his backup last year. The Bucks will get major offensive contributions from all of their regulars, presuming Dan Gadzuric gets lots of offensive rebounds and outbacks, which he should. The team has great balance.

John Hollinger agrees with the addition-by-subtraction notion, as Mo Williams led Ford by 2 points in Player Efficiency Rating last year. In fact, every analyst outside Canada and Germany seems to agree that that the Bucks did a number on the Raptors with the CV31 trade. Some of the funnier blog reactions from the summer:

• Colangelo is a genius
• Memo to Raptor Nation: Ford is a Lemon
• We’ll miss you Financial Considerations

Bill Simmons weighed in as well:

Disregard Ford's scary spinal cord problems, that he can't shoot to save his life, that he's a free agent two years earlier than Villanueva, even that he lost crunch-time minutes to Charlie Bell last season. Again, I want you to disregard everything in that sentence. From a pure basketball standpoint, since when is a young point guard worth as much as a young power forward who can rebound and shoot 3s? When has that EVER been the case? How fast did the Bucks' front office say yes to this trade? 0.79 seconds? 1.2 seconds? Did they say, "Hold on, we'll discuss this and call you back in a few hours," then hang up and start pouring champagne on one another? If somebody made this deal in my fantasy league, I would have protested it.

The bottom line is that this year's Christmastime Bucks have some promising young talent and should be interesting to watch, but will probably end up in the cellar of the very tough Central Division for the 3rd straight year.

Last Season:	41-41
Preview prediction:	43-39
Oddsmakers:	44-38

Most importantly, injuries will dictate how this team fares in the 2006-7 season. While the Eastern Conference provides plenty of easy teams to rack up wins against, the playoffs aren’t so forgiving. A first round exit sounds about right, if Tinsley and O’Neal hold up long enough to help the Pacers get to the post-season..

A pair of long-running stories dominated Pacers headlines over the offseason:

• The on-again, off-again reacquisition of Al Harrington. According to Chad Ford (link via True Hoop), the Pacers couldn't have played this any better—they got their guy for a reasonable salary in exchange for a first round pick and cap flexibility.
• The skirmish at an Indianapolis strip club that had Stephen Jackson topping the lowpost.net player coverage rankings for quite a while.

Donnie Walsh and the rest of Indiana's front office have put together remarkably successful teams over the past 2 decades (see chart below), and Pacers fans will obviously look to the Harrington acquisition as a source of optimism in '06-07. The last time Al was playing alongside Jermaine O'Neal, the Pacers won a league-leading 61 games in the regular season before losing to the eventual champion Detroit Pistons. Of course, Ron Artest and a still-effective Reggie Miller were around back then as well, and given the strength of the Bulls, Cavaliers, and Pistons, it's likely that Indiana won't even finish in the top half of the Central Division this year.