Statistical analysis, charts, graphs, and observations from a lifelong NBA fan.

When Kenyon Martin was suspended by the Nuggets in the middle of their first-round playoff series with the Clippers, much was made of the fact that the team had actually done better in the regular season when K-Mart was out of the lineup (19-7) than it had when he played (25-31). As it turns out, a different member of the 2001 All-Rookie team looked even worse from this perspective for the 2005-06 season ... read on to find out who.

In January, I looked at which players seemed to be having the most significant effect on their teams' performance—positively or negatively. It included players who had averaged 25+ minutes in 10+ games and also missed 5+ games. For this latest 2005-06 recap, I ran the same analysis for the entire season. Of course, without considering other factors like opponent strength and other players' participation, it's impossible to make any true statistical inferences.

Expendable Players (2005-06)

Player Team Played Missed Difference
Mike Miller Grizzlies 41-32 8-1 (0.327)
Peja Stojakovic Kings 11-20 33-18 (0.292)
Kenyon Martin Nuggets 25-31 19-7 (0.284)
P.J. Brown Hornets 33-42 5-2 (0.274)
Chris Webber 76ers 33-42 5-2 (0.274)
Brevin Knight Bobcats 19-50 7-6 (0.263)
Jumaine Jones Bobcats 23-53 3-3 (0.197)
Marquis Daniels Mavericks 43-19 17-3 (0.156)
Ronald Murray Sonics 17-31 17-17 (0.146)
Mark Blount Timberwolves 14-28 19-21 (0.142)


Miller seems to be most valuable
to the Grizzlies when he's off the court.
Season Team Played Missed
2001-02 Magic 33-30 11-8
2002-03 Magic 22-27 20-13
2003-04 Grizzlies 39-26 11-6
2004-05 Grizzlies 40-36 5-1
2005-06 Grizzlies 41-32 8-1
2000-01 Rookie of the Year Mike Miller tops the expendable list with the biggest difference between the Grizzlies' record with and without him in the lineup. As it turns out, Miller has been extremely consistent in this respect. In each of the past 5 years, his team has had a better winning percentage when he didn't play than when did (see table to the right).

Other Notes:

  • The 2000-01 rookie class, considered to be one of the weakest in recent history, is well-represented on this list with Miller, Martin, and Mark Blount.
  • Peja Stojakovic ranked 2nd primarily because of the Ron Artest-led surge that the Kings enjoyed in the 2nd half of the season. Stojakovic's presence didn't translate to much for the Pacers—they posted .500 records with and without Peja in the lineup.
  • Blount and Flip Murray also switched teams at midseason. Blount's relatively poor record with the Timberwovles can be partially explained by the departure of Wally Sczerbiak, who played well during the 1st half of the year. Murray doesn't have that excuse (he was traded for Mike Wilks and cash), which explains why some Seattle fans would create sites like TradeFlipMurray.com.

Indispensable Players (2005-06)
Player Team Played Missed Difference
Tracy McGrady Rockets 27-20 7-28 0.374
Andrei Kirilenko Jazz 38-31 3-10 0.320
Chris Bosh Raptors 26-44 1-11 0.288
Zach Randolph Blazers 21-53 0-8 0.284
Shaquille O'Neal Heat 42-17 10-13 0.277
Jameer Nelson Magic 31-31 5-15 0.250
Caron Butler Wizards 40-35 2-5 0.248
Ron Artest Kings 26-14 18-24 0.221
Yao Ming Rockets 27-30 7-18 0.194
Allen Iverson 76ers 35-37 3-7 0.186


Unfortunately for Rockets fans,
this was a rare sight in 2005-06.
Scenario Record
McGrady & Yao Played 21-10
McGrady & Yao Missed 1-8
McGrady Played; Yao Missed 6-10
Yao Played; McGrady Missed 6-20
With 2 Houston stars missing a considerable number of games, the Rockets deserve special analysis (see table to the right). The team played on track for a 56-win season when both players were able to go, but they could only manage 1 win in 9 games when T-Mac and Yao had to sit.

Other Notes:

  • None of the top 5 finishers in the MVP voting missed enough games to warrant inclusion in this analysis, although most of them seemed to demonstrate their value. In the games that Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Chauncey Billups missed, their teams were a combined 0-7. On the other hand, the Cavaliers were a surprising 3-0 with LeBron James out of the lineup.
  • Artest clearly made a big difference for the Kings—enough to get some Sacramento fans thinking about 65 wins next year.
  • Zach Randolph missed 8 games for the Blazers as well as team picture day. Unfortunately for the team, it looks like their season would have been even worse without him.
  • Washington 3rd banana Caron Butler may have had the most dramatic return from injury in the league this season. The Wizards lost all 5 games that he missed in April (including 2 to lottery teams). Upon his return, they finally clinched a playoff spot and finished the season with 3 straight wins against playoff teams.

Another great stats article. Like you said, you're not considering other factors, but it's interesting nonetheless. I see that T-Mac and Zach Randolph are "indispensable" to their teams. Sigh - so talented, yet so troubled...
As usual, people fail to go through stats with a fine comb. The Cavs beat the Knicks, Celtics, and Hawks (in that order) with LeBron out. Is that really that surprising?
Never mind Blurrz's negativity, that's a great article. The biggest thing for me is how bad Mike "Albatross" Miller comes out of this. Also, I'm always happy to see data that validates my opinion that the Rockets would have been top-5 in the West if it weren't for Yao and Tracy being so banged up!
If you go back thru T-Mac's yrs in Orlando and his first season in Houston,his teams won about 10% of the games he's missed. Considering 4 of those 5 were playoff teams,is there any doubt how valuable he is to a team. I recall Vince and Iverson's teams going on runs when they went out and I wonder how the Lakers did w/out Kobe,both before and after Shaq. So how do the elite players stack up in terms of team winning % when they were out since 2000 or so?


Add a comment

Title
Body
HTML : b, i, blockquote, br, p, pre, a href="", ul, ol, li
Math Quiz 5 + 5 = (Helps stop blog spammers)
Name
E-mail address
Website
Remember me Yes  No 

E-mail addresses are not publicly displayed, so please only leave your e-mail address if you would like to be notified when new comments are added to this blog entry (you can opt-out later).