When Kenyon Martin was suspended by the Nuggets in the middle of their first-round playoff series with the Clippers, much was made of the fact that the team had actually done better in the regular season when K-Mart was out of the lineup (19-7) than it had when he played (25-31). As it turns out, a different member of the 2001 All-Rookie team looked even worse from this perspective for the 2005-06 season ... read on to find out who.
Miller seems to be most valuable
to the Grizzlies when he's off the court.
2000-01 Rookie of the Year Mike Miller tops the expendable list with the biggest difference between the Grizzlies' record with and without him in the lineup. As it turns out, Miller has been extremely consistent in this respect. In each of the past 5 years, his team has had a better winning percentage when he didn't play than when did (see table to the right).
Unfortunately for Rockets fans,
this was a rare sight in 2005-06.
With 2 Houston stars missing a considerable number of games, the Rockets deserve special analysis (see table to the right). The team played on track for a 56-win season when both players were able to go, but they could only manage 1 win in 9 games when T-Mac and Yao had to sit.
In January, I looked at which players seemed to be having the most significant effect on their teams' performance—positively or negatively. It included players who had averaged 25+ minutes in 10+ games and also missed 5+ games. For this latest 2005-06 recap, I ran the same analysis for the entire season. Of course, without considering other factors like opponent strength and other players' participation, it's impossible to make any true statistical inferences.
Expendable Players (2005-06)
| Player | Team | Played | Missed | Difference |
| Mike Miller | Grizzlies | 41-32 | 8-1 | (0.327) |
| Peja Stojakovic | Kings | 11-20 | 33-18 | (0.292) |
| Kenyon Martin | Nuggets | 25-31 | 19-7 | (0.284) |
| P.J. Brown | Hornets | 33-42 | 5-2 | (0.274) |
| Chris Webber | 76ers | 33-42 | 5-2 | (0.274) |
| Brevin Knight | Bobcats | 19-50 | 7-6 | (0.263) |
| Jumaine Jones | Bobcats | 23-53 | 3-3 | (0.197) |
| Marquis Daniels | Mavericks | 43-19 | 17-3 | (0.156) |
| Ronald Murray | Sonics | 17-31 | 17-17 | (0.146) |
| Mark Blount | Timberwolves | 14-28 | 19-21 | (0.142) |
Miller seems to be most valuable
to the Grizzlies when he's off the court.
| Season | Team | Played | Missed |
| 2001-02 | Magic | 33-30 | 11-8 |
| 2002-03 | Magic | 22-27 | 20-13 |
| 2003-04 | Grizzlies | 39-26 | 11-6 |
| 2004-05 | Grizzlies | 40-36 | 5-1 |
| 2005-06 | Grizzlies | 41-32 | 8-1 |
Other Notes:
- The 2000-01 rookie class, considered to be one of the weakest in recent history, is well-represented on this list with Miller, Martin, and Mark Blount.
- Peja Stojakovic ranked 2nd primarily because of the Ron Artest-led surge that the Kings enjoyed in the 2nd half of the season. Stojakovic's presence didn't translate to much for the Pacers—they posted .500 records with and without Peja in the lineup.
- Blount and Flip Murray also switched teams at midseason. Blount's relatively poor record with the Timberwovles can be partially explained by the departure of Wally Sczerbiak, who played well during the 1st half of the year. Murray doesn't have that excuse (he was traded for Mike Wilks and cash), which explains why some Seattle fans would create sites like TradeFlipMurray.com.
Indispensable Players (2005-06)
| Player | Team | Played | Missed | Difference |
| Tracy McGrady | Rockets | 27-20 | 7-28 | 0.374 |
| Andrei Kirilenko | Jazz | 38-31 | 3-10 | 0.320 |
| Chris Bosh | Raptors | 26-44 | 1-11 | 0.288 |
| Zach Randolph | Blazers | 21-53 | 0-8 | 0.284 |
| Shaquille O'Neal | Heat | 42-17 | 10-13 | 0.277 |
| Jameer Nelson | Magic | 31-31 | 5-15 | 0.250 |
| Caron Butler | Wizards | 40-35 | 2-5 | 0.248 |
| Ron Artest | Kings | 26-14 | 18-24 | 0.221 |
| Yao Ming | Rockets | 27-30 | 7-18 | 0.194 |
| Allen Iverson | 76ers | 35-37 | 3-7 | 0.186 |
Unfortunately for Rockets fans,
this was a rare sight in 2005-06.
| Scenario | Record |
| McGrady & Yao Played | 21-10 |
| McGrady & Yao Missed | 1-8 |
| McGrady Played; Yao Missed | 6-10 |
| Yao Played; McGrady Missed | 6-20 |
Other Notes:
- None of the top 5 finishers in the MVP voting missed enough games to warrant inclusion in this analysis, although most of them seemed to demonstrate their value. In the games that Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Chauncey Billups missed, their teams were a combined 0-7. On the other hand, the Cavaliers were a surprising 3-0 with LeBron James out of the lineup.
- Artest clearly made a big difference for the Kings—enough to get some Sacramento fans thinking about 65 wins next year.
- Zach Randolph missed 8 games for the Blazers as well as team picture day. Unfortunately for the team, it looks like their season would have been even worse without him.
- Washington 3rd banana Caron Butler may have had the most dramatic return from injury in the league this season. The Wizards lost all 5 games that he missed in April (including 2 to lottery teams). Upon his return, they finally clinched a playoff spot and finished the season with 3 straight wins against playoff teams.
Comments[4]
Posted by jgurney on May 8, 2006 11:40:08 PM PDT
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Re: 2005-06 Indispensable vs. Expendable
Another great stats article. Like you said, you're not considering other factors, but it's interesting nonetheless.
I see that T-Mac and Zach Randolph are "indispensable" to their teams. Sigh - so talented, yet so troubled...
Comment from Jeff - HoopsAddict on May 9, 2006 6:53:39 AM PDT
As usual, people fail to go through stats with a fine comb. The Cavs beat the Knicks, Celtics, and Hawks (in that order) with LeBron out. Is that really that surprising?
Comment from Blurrz on May 9, 2006 10:31:52 AM PDT
Never mind Blurrz's negativity, that's a great article. The biggest thing for me is how bad Mike "Albatross" Miller comes out of this.
Also, I'm always happy to see data that validates my opinion that the Rockets would have been top-5 in the West if it weren't for Yao and Tracy being so banged up!
Comment from Don Paco on May 9, 2006 2:48:35 PM PDT
If you go back thru T-Mac's yrs in Orlando and his first season in Houston,his teams won about 10% of the games he's missed. Considering 4 of those 5 were playoff teams,is there any doubt how valuable he is to a team.
I recall Vince and Iverson's teams going on runs when they went out and I wonder how the Lakers did w/out Kobe,both before and after Shaq.
So how do the elite players stack up in terms of team winning % when they were out since 2000 or so?
Comment from Stephen on May 9, 2006 4:21:41 PM PDT