It could be argued that the modern draft lottery process began in 1990—the first year that the lottery odds were weighted toward the teams with the worst regular season records. Selections prior to that year were more chaotic, since every team in the lottery had an equal chance of nabbing the top spot. In 1994, the odds swung even further toward the worst teams, presumably to help avoid scenarios like Orlando drawing back-to-back #1 picks in 1990 and 1991. For more details, see this comprehensive history from NBA.com's encyclopedia area.
Using the results of each of the 17 draft lotteries held since 1990, it's possible to determine which teams have been luckiest, and which teams got the short end of the stick over that period. For this study, I calculated each team's expected lottery result for each season as the sum of potential picks multiplied by the corresponding probabilities. Comparing the expected results to the average results provides a good picture of which teams have benefited most from the lottery process. This difference appears as the average boost and average decline for the following tables:
UPDATE: Corrected actual results and differences for 2005, when the Jazz and the Blazers swapped picks prior to the draft. Thanks to Gurd, Lance, and Eric for pointing this out.
Luckiest Lottery Teams (1990-2006)
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Unluckiest Lottery Teams (1990-2006)
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The Hornets have also fared well in their lottery appearances—getting lucky in 1991 (Larry Johnson), 1992 (Alonzo Mourning), and 1999 (Baron Davis).
Because the lottery is used only for the top 3 picks, with all other teams drafting according to their regular season records, most teams don't have too far to fall relative to their expected results. Still, there are plenty of teams from the unlucky list who are undoubtedly disappointed with their lottery trends over the past several years.
Use the select boxes below to bring up full actual vs. expected breakdowns for each season and team in the following table.
Here I show which stars are stepping up their games in the playoffs ... and which ones are taking a step back. Evaluations are based on John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER), which is a great all-around individual metric that incorporates virtually every conventional statistic.
The chart below includes regular season vs. playoff PER comparisons for the top-ranked players from each playoff team, as well as the 10 players from playoff teams who received at least one MVP vote. Nash doesn't appear in the Western Conference chart because Shawn Marion actually posted a better regular season PER (and as some APBRmetricians might argue, may have been more valuable to the Suns). You can find Nash in the MVP list, however.
Stepping Up
- In the West, Nowitzki and Duncan are duking it out for the top playoff PER rating. Unfortunately, their teams are also facing each other on the court, even though we're only in the 2nd round. Thankfully, the seeding mess might be cleared up by next year.
- Carter and Michael Redd have had the best individual statistics in the Eastern Conference Playoffs so far, despite the fact that most of their games have been played against tough defensive teams (Indiana and Detroit). Redd didn't have much help, though—his next-highest-scoring teammate averaged almost 15 points per game less, and the Bucks were dispatched quickly by the Pistons.
- Andres Nocioni played a strong series against the Heat, but what was more surprising to me was the fact that with a 16-point PER, he had the top regular season Bulls rating. PER is calibrated every year so that the league average is 15.0, which suggests that Chicago has no superstars, and Scott Skiles must be a good coach.
Stepping Back
- Carmelo Anthony posted the biggest individual decline, dropping from a strong 22.1 rating in the regular season to a below-average 10.8 rating in the playoffs.
- Mike Bibby also posted a below-average PER in the playoffs. The fact that the Kings were matched up against the Spurs didn't help, because San Antonio had the best Defensive Efficiency rating in the league this year.
- Kobe's decline is somewhat surprising, considering his reputation as a clutch performer and the Lakers' first-round matchup with the fast-paced Suns. For Kobe, scoring just 1 point in the 2nd half of a Game 7 loss is pretty much the opposite of stepping up. Fortunately, he has friends like Mark Madsen to remind him that he is easily 6'7".
In January, I looked at which players seemed to be having the most significant effect on their teams' performance—positively or negatively. It included players who had averaged 25+ minutes in 10+ games and also missed 5+ games. For this latest 2005-06 recap, I ran the same analysis for the entire season. Of course, without considering other factors like opponent strength and other players' participation, it's impossible to make any true statistical inferences.
Expendable Players (2005-06)
| Player | Team | Played | Missed | Difference |
| Mike Miller | Grizzlies | 41-32 | 8-1 | (0.327) |
| Peja Stojakovic | Kings | 11-20 | 33-18 | (0.292) |
| Kenyon Martin | Nuggets | 25-31 | 19-7 | (0.284) |
| P.J. Brown | Hornets | 33-42 | 5-2 | (0.274) |
| Chris Webber | 76ers | 33-42 | 5-2 | (0.274) |
| Brevin Knight | Bobcats | 19-50 | 7-6 | (0.263) |
| Jumaine Jones | Bobcats | 23-53 | 3-3 | (0.197) |
| Marquis Daniels | Mavericks | 43-19 | 17-3 | (0.156) |
| Ronald Murray | Sonics | 17-31 | 17-17 | (0.146) |
| Mark Blount | Timberwolves | 14-28 | 19-21 | (0.142) |
Miller seems to be most valuable
to the Grizzlies when he's off the court.
| Season | Team | Played | Missed |
| 2001-02 | Magic | 33-30 | 11-8 |
| 2002-03 | Magic | 22-27 | 20-13 |
| 2003-04 | Grizzlies | 39-26 | 11-6 |
| 2004-05 | Grizzlies | 40-36 | 5-1 |
| 2005-06 | Grizzlies | 41-32 | 8-1 |
Other Notes:
- The 2000-01 rookie class, considered to be one of the weakest in recent history, is well-represented on this list with Miller, Martin, and Mark Blount.
- Peja Stojakovic ranked 2nd primarily because of the Ron Artest-led surge that the Kings enjoyed in the 2nd half of the season. Stojakovic's presence didn't translate to much for the Pacers—they posted .500 records with and without Peja in the lineup.
- Blount and Flip Murray also switched teams at midseason. Blount's relatively poor record with the Timberwovles can be partially explained by the departure of Wally Sczerbiak, who played well during the 1st half of the year. Murray doesn't have that excuse (he was traded for Mike Wilks and cash), which explains why some Seattle fans would create sites like TradeFlipMurray.com.
Indispensable Players (2005-06)
| Player | Team | Played | Missed | Difference |
| Tracy McGrady | Rockets | 27-20 | 7-28 | 0.374 |
| Andrei Kirilenko | Jazz | 38-31 | 3-10 | 0.320 |
| Chris Bosh | Raptors | 26-44 | 1-11 | 0.288 |
| Zach Randolph | Blazers | 21-53 | 0-8 | 0.284 |
| Shaquille O'Neal | Heat | 42-17 | 10-13 | 0.277 |
| Jameer Nelson | Magic | 31-31 | 5-15 | 0.250 |
| Caron Butler | Wizards | 40-35 | 2-5 | 0.248 |
| Ron Artest | Kings | 26-14 | 18-24 | 0.221 |
| Yao Ming | Rockets | 27-30 | 7-18 | 0.194 |
| Allen Iverson | 76ers | 35-37 | 3-7 | 0.186 |
Unfortunately for Rockets fans,
this was a rare sight in 2005-06.
| Scenario | Record |
| McGrady & Yao Played | 21-10 |
| McGrady & Yao Missed | 1-8 |
| McGrady Played; Yao Missed | 6-10 |
| Yao Played; McGrady Missed | 6-20 |
Other Notes:
- None of the top 5 finishers in the MVP voting missed enough games to warrant inclusion in this analysis, although most of them seemed to demonstrate their value. In the games that Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Chauncey Billups missed, their teams were a combined 0-7. On the other hand, the Cavaliers were a surprising 3-0 with LeBron James out of the lineup.
- Artest clearly made a big difference for the Kings—enough to get some Sacramento fans thinking about 65 wins next year.
- Zach Randolph missed 8 games for the Blazers as well as team picture day. Unfortunately for the team, it looks like their season would have been even worse without him.
- Washington 3rd banana Caron Butler may have had the most dramatic return from injury in the league this season. The Wizards lost all 5 games that he missed in April (including 2 to lottery teams). Upon his return, they finally clinched a playoff spot and finished the season with 3 straight wins against playoff teams.
Welcome to NBA Carnival #27! Several themes were considered for this edition, but in the end, I couldn't ignore a few recent signs*:
- The Cavalier getting all choked up about the Superman Returns trailer.
- Last week's Bizarro World Playoff Report from farlane.blog.
- A "Riddle me this ...," quote from Mark Cuban in his NBA Playoff Seeding.... what if scenario from a few weeks ago. It was an interesting post, by the way—complaining about the new 3-division seeding policy without mentioning the fact that his team was about to get shafted most of all.
So, here it is—some of the best NBA blog content I ran across over the past few weeks.
 Doesn't let diminutive size (sub-atomic) prevent him from fighting crime. |
from Isn't letting diminutive size (5'6", 135 lbs) prevent him from declaring for 2006 NBA draft. |
 Humor-obsessed criminal who likes to blow things up. (And shoot things.) |
from Humor-obsessed blogger with a daily EXPLOSIONS feature. (Plus, Who Shot Mamba?) |
 Wears green pants; leads legions of sea creatures. |
from Favorite team wears green; leads legions of Celtics fans. Need proof of his popularity? See how many comments are posted to articles like last week's pitch for another point guard or the results of certain All-Star 1-on-1 polls. |
 Far-reaching empire includes his own planet and army; tried to marry Wonder Woman. |
from Multimedia empire includes Hoops Addict Magazine and Killer Crossover Podcast; recently tried to get a Raptor dancer's phone number. |
 Wears a cape but possesses no discernible super powers. |
from Writes a blog but possesses no discernible personality. |
 Uses extraordinary intelligence to devise elaborate schemes to defeat the Super Friends. |
Uses extraordinary intelligence of top mathematicians to prove that 0 is greater than 23. |
 Able to withstand corrosives, punctures and concussions without sustaining injury. |
from Able to withstand ups and downs of '05-06 Sacramento season without going batty. Case in point: see Tom's attitude toward Ron Artest over the past few months: |
 Colossal, yet largely ineffective. |
Mascot Greg Ostertag is colossal, yet ineffective. The team recently took a break from their Ostertag farewell tour to explain why the Suns got screwed in Game 4. |
 Uses mind-reading for heroic effect. |
from Uses mind-reading for comedic effect. |
 Named for ability to project bolts of nuclear energy. |
from Is the Joe Johnson point guard experiment over? Chase makes his case for bringing Sam Cassell into the fold. |
 Lives in the backwards bizarro world. Up is Down. Down is Up. He says "Hello" when he leaves, "Goodbye" when he arrives. |
Things certainly seem to be backwards in Oakland:
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 Covers the earth at light speed. |
from Seem to cover the online and offline world at light speed, finding gems like this sign 30 miles outside of Detroit. If it weren't for DBB, would we know about the inflatable Ben Wallace or the real identity of Black Mamba? |
 Comic villain, known for her darkforce energy.
(Note: Black Mamba never actually appeared on the Super Friends, but I couldn't leave her out.)
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from Demonstrated a ton of energy in covering Black Mamba and the rest of the Lakers this season—not even missing a beat for the birth of his second child! |
 Works in Gotham City; utility belt gives him tremendous versatility. |
from Writes in Gotham; has the range to tell you why Kobe is more valuable than LeBron or why Fishscale is better than Late Registration (agreed on both counts). |
 Most prolific and powerful Super Friend. |
from Most prolific NBA blogger can do it all: investigative reporting, media commentary, and basketball analysis. On Tuesday, he live-blogged 4 games in 1 night. That's just showing off. |
 Determined to rule the world. |
from Carnival Host #26 is apparently determined to rule the basketball world with hilarious posts, an entertaining weekly podcast and recent appearances on AOL Sports Bloggers Live and MSN. |
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There must be a good Super Friends comparison to be made here, but it's beyond me. Don't miss The Jacket, along with the typically lively comments. Campaigns for NBA blogger access to the press box buffet. Low on quantity, high on quality. Example: Blogger Post-Season Awards Agrees that the playoffs are going much better now that they were a week earlier. Reminds us time and again of the truth about Tractor Traylor, Dirk Nowitzki and the 1998 draft. Reacts to Kelly Dwyer's recent NBA broadcaster rankings at sportsillustrated.com. Covering the Lakers as they take care of business at home. Examines the effect of Euroleaguers in the NBA. Offering takes on the playoffs and player movement rumors. |
There you have it—the 27th Carnival of the NBA, Super Friends Edition. Thanks to all of you who submitted suggestions, and thanks to Matt from Blog a Bull for coordinating.
Still looking for more great NBA blog content? Check out lowpost.net.