With less than 2 weeks left in the regular season, only 2 of this year's NBA playoff seeds have been locked up: In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons have clinched the #1 seed, and the Cavaliers are locked into the #4 seed. With the rest of the playoff-bound teams jockeying for position, fans may wonder how important playoff seeding is to a team's postseason chances. Of course, every year is different, but there are a few interesting trends in the historical performance of the various seeds.
For this study, I compiled all playoff series outcomes since the 1983-84 season--which is when the playoffs were originally expanded to include 16 teams. The first chart shows how many teams with each seed were knocked out in the various rounds of the playoffs over the past 22 years.
The following table offers a slightly different view, listing the historical win-loss record (in series) for each seed in each round.
Series Records by Seed and Round (1983-84 through 2004-05)
| Round | 1st Seed | 2nd Seed | 3rd Seed | 4th Seed | 5th Seed | 6th Seed | 7th Seed | 8th Seed |
| 1st Round | 42-2 | 40-4 | 32-12 | 20-24 | 24-20 | 12-32 | 4-40 | 2-42 |
| Conference Semis | 40-2 | 20-20 | 20-12 | 0-20 | 3-21 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Conference Finals | 28-12 | 10-10 | 4-16 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Finals | 15-13 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Notes:
- #1 Seeds: Have reached the Conference Finals 91% of the time. 68% of the overall champs over this period were #1 seeds. First round losses: 1993-94 Sonics, 1999 Heat. Conference Semifinal losses: 1989-90 Lakers, 1993-94 Hawks.
- #2 Seeds: Have advanced beyond the first round 91% of the time, but have lost 50% of the time in the Conference Semifinals to lower-seeded opponents. First round losses: 1986-87 Mavericks, 1988-89 Jazz, 1990-91 Spurs, 1997-98 Heat.
- #3 Seeds: Have lost in the first round 3 times more often than #2 seeds, but have maintained a strong advantage against #2 seeds in the Conference Semifinals. This is partially explained by the fact that each conference had two divisions for most of the period in question. In many cases, the #3 seed had a better record than the #2 seed, but was penalized for playing in the same division as the #1 seed. Championships: 2003-04 Pistons, 2001-02 Lakers. Also reaching the NBA Finals: 1989-90 Blazers, 1990-91 Lakers.
- #4 Seeds: Have not fared very well in the playoffs, losing in the first round more than half the time, and failing to win a single Conference Semifinal series. This will presumably improve now that each conference has 3 divisions, as it will be possible to have #4 seeds (like this year's Mavericks or Spurs) with better records than the division-winning #2 and #3 seeds.
- #5 Seeds: Have obviously done slightly better than the #4 seeds. Conference Semifinal wins: 1989-90 Suns, 1993-94 Jazz, 1993-94 Pacers.
Dikembe Mutombo celebrates
the first-ever 8 vs. 1 upset --
an image forever burned into
the retinas of Sonics Fans - #6 Seeds: Include the only lower-seeded team to win a championship: The 1994-95 Rockets. Also reaching the Conference Finals: 1983-84 Suns and 1988-89 Bulls.
- #7 Seeds: Have lost in the first round almost as frequently as the #8 seeds. Only the 1986-87 Sonics (who reached the Conference Finals), 1988-89 Warriors, 1990-91 Warriors, and 1997-98 Knicks defeated #2 seeds in the first round.
- #8 Seeds: Have almost always lost in the first round. Exceptions: the 1993-94 Nuggets and the 1999 "Ewing Theory" Knicks, who advanced to the NBA Finals in the strike-shortened 1999 season.
Comments[0]
Posted by jgurney on April 9, 2006 1:21:18 AM PDT