Statistical analysis, charts, graphs, and observations from a lifelong NBA fan.

lowpost.net scoreboard
This week a major new feature was added to lowpost.net and striketwo.net: Game tracking. This is a natural extension for sports services, and with the NBA Playoffs just getting started, it seems like the right time. Both blog monitoring tools now include pages for each contest that contain scores as well as links to related previews, open threads, recaps, and analysis from sports bloggers.

Primary navigation to the game-specific content is available via each site's scoreboard page: lowpost.net/scoreboard/ and striketwo.net/scoreboard/. Mini scoreboards are also available in the sidebar of each team page (like Detroit Pistons or New York Mets) as well as the lower right corner of the respective home pages.

The home pages have also been streamlined somewhat to make room for the new scoreboards. The old home pages are still available at these new locations: lowpost.net/threads/ and striketwo.net/threads/

Thanks to everyone who participated during the past couple of weeks of beta testing--your feedback was extremely helpful.

Finally! The NBA regular season concluded on Wednesday night, and the playoffs begin in less than 12 hours. Of course, not many of the first round series are expected to be competitive--the Clippers and the Wizards are the only lower-seeded teams that are getting reasonable odds to advance.

Things should heat up in the conference semifinals, however. Until then, I'll put together a few regular season summaries. First up is an update of team win charts, which were last run just under a month ago.

Chart available at lowpost.net/blog.

To see other examples, use the form above to select up to five different teams. Alternatively, you can choose from one of the groups below:

Eastern Conference     Western Conference
Divisions Seeds Divisions Seeds

Other interesting combinations: see how the Knicks and Magic fared since the February 22 Steve Francis trade, which teams finished strong, and which teams seemed to be playing for ping pong balls by the last month of the season.

With less than 2 weeks left in the regular season, only 2 of this year's NBA playoff seeds have been locked up: In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons have clinched the #1 seed, and the Cavaliers are locked into the #4 seed. With the rest of the playoff-bound teams jockeying for position, fans may wonder how important playoff seeding is to a team's postseason chances. Of course, every year is different, but there are a few interesting trends in the historical performance of the various seeds.

For this study, I compiled all playoff series outcomes since the 1983-84 season--which is when the playoffs were originally expanded to include 16 teams. The first chart shows how many teams with each seed were knocked out in the various rounds of the playoffs over the past 22 years.

The following table offers a slightly different view, listing the historical win-loss record (in series) for each seed in each round.

Series Records by Seed and Round (1983-84 through 2004-05)

Round 1st Seed 2nd Seed 3rd Seed 4th Seed 5th Seed 6th Seed 7th Seed 8th Seed
1st Round 42-2 40-4 32-12 20-24 24-20 12-32 4-40 2-42
Conference Semis 40-2 20-20 20-12 0-20 3-21 3-9 1-3 1-1
Conference Finals 28-12 10-10 4-16 0-0 0-3 1-2 0-1 1-0
Finals 15-13 4-6 2-2 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-1

Notes:

  • #1 Seeds: Have reached the Conference Finals 91% of the time. 68% of the overall champs over this period were #1 seeds. First round losses: 1993-94 Sonics, 1999 Heat. Conference Semifinal losses: 1989-90 Lakers, 1993-94 Hawks.

  • #2 Seeds: Have advanced beyond the first round 91% of the time, but have lost 50% of the time in the Conference Semifinals to lower-seeded opponents. First round losses: 1986-87 Mavericks, 1988-89 Jazz, 1990-91 Spurs, 1997-98 Heat.

  • #3 Seeds: Have lost in the first round 3 times more often than #2 seeds, but have maintained a strong advantage against #2 seeds in the Conference Semifinals. This is partially explained by the fact that each conference had two divisions for most of the period in question. In many cases, the #3 seed had a better record than the #2 seed, but was penalized for playing in the same division as the #1 seed. Championships: 2003-04 Pistons, 2001-02 Lakers. Also reaching the NBA Finals: 1989-90 Blazers, 1990-91 Lakers.

  • #4 Seeds: Have not fared very well in the playoffs, losing in the first round more than half the time, and failing to win a single Conference Semifinal series. This will presumably improve now that each conference has 3 divisions, as it will be possible to have #4 seeds (like this year's Mavericks or Spurs) with better records than the division-winning #2 and #3 seeds.

  • #5 Seeds: Have obviously done slightly better than the #4 seeds. Conference Semifinal wins: 1989-90 Suns, 1993-94 Jazz, 1993-94 Pacers.


    Dikembe Mutombo celebrates
    the first-ever 8 vs. 1 upset --
    an image forever burned into
    the retinas of Sonics Fans
  • #6 Seeds: Include the only lower-seeded team to win a championship: The 1994-95 Rockets. Also reaching the Conference Finals: 1983-84 Suns and 1988-89 Bulls.

  • #7 Seeds: Have lost in the first round almost as frequently as the #8 seeds. Only the 1986-87 Sonics (who reached the Conference Finals), 1988-89 Warriors, 1990-91 Warriors, and 1997-98 Knicks defeated #2 seeds in the first round.

  • #8 Seeds: Have almost always lost in the first round. Exceptions: the 1993-94 Nuggets and the 1999 "Ewing Theory" Knicks, who advanced to the NBA Finals in the strike-shortened 1999 season.