Statistical analysis, charts, graphs, and observations from a lifelong NBA fan.

Shaquille O'Neal went through a lot this past MLK Day:

Watching Monday's game clarified an unfortunate fact for me: we're very close to having zero superstar centers left in the league. As noted on TNT, Shaq is averaging career lows in points, rebounds, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage. His minutes are also way down, thanks to nagging injuries that seem like they'll never go away.

1994 MVP Voting
1. Hakeem Olajuwon
2. David Robinson
3. Scottie Pippen
4. Shaquille O'Neal
5. Patrick Ewing
1995 MVP Voting
1. David Robinson
2. Shaquille O'Neal
3. Karl Malone
4. Patrick Ewing
5. Hakeem Olajuwon

Looking back, the 1993-94 and 1994-95 seasons were good times for centers in the NBA. MJ was off playing baseball, which left David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, and Shaq to dominate the league. They finished 1-2-4-5 in the MVP voting both years. Hakeem's Rockets won titles both years, knocking off Ewing's Knicks in '94 and Shaq's Magic in '95.

Since then, The Diesel has been pretty much carrying the mantle on his own. He's the last great true center, and the last of the 50 Greatest Players, but it doesn't look like he has much left in the tank.

To test this impression, I decided to chart John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) by age for our most recent star centers, to see where Shaq fits in on the curve:

As you can see, O'Neal got an earlier start than the other guys, and seemed to peak at an earlier age (26). His decline doesn't look too healthy, although at 33, his PER this year is still in the same ballpark as the other players' PER at that age.

However, since PER is a per-minute statistic, it doesn't take into account differences in number of minutes played. For Shaq this year, that makes a difference. He's playing 28 minutes a game, whereas the other 3 guys played an average of 36 minutes a game when they were 33. So, I decided to generate a per-game PER by multiplying the PER by minutes and dividing by 48 to build this chart:

Here, O'Neal's early decline is much more pronounced. His 33-year-old per-game rating is on par with the other center's ratings at 36-37 years. And at the current rate, he could be out of the league in another 1-2 years. This isn't such good news for the Heat, who owe him another $80 million through 2010.

Hopefully, Shaq will be able to turn things around and stay productive for another few years. If not, the league will have some big shoes to fill.


Shaq historically has the worse conditioning out of that group, which has finally taken its toll. It must eats him up inside to be compared to David Robinson, one player he once said he "doesn't want to be remembered as being only as good as". On the bright side, Michael Doleac may finally get his big break in 2 years.
love the analysis. as a DROB fan, always thought he was underrated compared to Hakeem. good to see his peaks exceed those of his peer though his peak period did not extend as long (that back of his kept hurting him plus that fortuitous injurty which netted Duncan was a mixed blessing)
Well Shack got his, should I say Karma... Coz He is all about the Muscle.. he's like a Muscle without Brain... more like an oyster.... Not like Olajuwon who played great even if he did'nt have the pounds to dominate he found another way...
You know, I've had a sense of this happening to Shaq, and I've made a few comments about his decline, but your statistical breakdown was frickin' fabulous...and right on the money. Great stuff, my man. By the way, what program do you use to create your graphs?
Thanks. The charts were done in Excel.
This solidifies it. Shaq's not moving like he was before, and we've all been seeing it. More lumbering jump hooks and less spin moves and dunks. I guess the "black tornado's" on it's way outta Kansas.


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