I like the fact that Mark Cuban owns an NBA team. His willingness to make himself available and speak his mind is refreshing. He also restored credibility to a Mavericks franchise that had been awful for most of the 1990's. However, I disagree with the conclusions he drew on his blog earlier this week. On Wednesday, he posted Back to Backs in the NBA, which estimated the impact NBA schedule makers have on games:

For this season, through december 15th, the 2nd game of a back to back makes a team 3.5 points worst. In other words, the best teams are still good, but on the 2nd game of back to back, particularly on the road, they become much closer to average. Making them beatable.

Its far worse for the 4th game in 5 nights. ON those nights, a team is 8 points worse. Again, more on the road. So basically, a team should lose to just about any but the worst teams if they are on the road.

Meaning, that the schedule gods can have a HUGE impact on the standings. That the day the Circus or a concert is scheduled at your arena could block out a night, that would in turn force the schedule to create multiple 4 game in 5 nights situation and possibly cost a playoff seeding !

As it turns out, I ran a similar analysis last month, drawing different conclusions for these types of games:

Net Point Disadvantages (2001-02 through 2004-05 seasons)

Schedule	Road Team	Home Team
2nd of back-to-back games	1.85	N/A
4th game in 5 days	1.49	N/A

In my analysis, based on 4 full seasons of play, teams were not significantly worse when playing the 4th game in 5 days or the 2nd of back-to-back games at home. My road team disadvantage wasn't nearly as great as what Cuban claimed--in fact, it was roughly half as important as the basic home court advantage. In other words, the schedule gods just weren't THAT important.

What's responsible for the difference? I decided to re-run my regression analysis against the data his team used: games from the current 2005-06 season through December 15. This time, my results were very similar to his:

Net Point Disadvantages (2005-06 season through 12/15)

Schedule	Road Team	Home Team	Weighted Average
2nd of back-to-back games	4.97	2.56	3.41
4th game in 5 days	8.29	10.53	8.70

My average factors (weighted by number of road vs. home games played) of 3.4 and 8.7 are roughly the same as Cuban's factors of 3.5 and 8, and vastly different from the 2001-2005 data. Looking at the results of these games, it's easy to see why. Teams are doing much worse in back-to-back and 4/5 games so far this season than they did in the previous 4 seasons:

Teams Playing 2nd of Back-to-Back Games

Season	Wins	Losses	Percentage
2001-02	246	344	.417
2002-03	248	338	.423
2003-04	259	310	.455
2004-05	269	340	.442
2005-06 (through 12/15)	56	97	.372

Teams Playing 4th Game in 5 Days

Season	Wins	Losses	Percentage
2001-02	37	65	.362
2002-03	45	54	.455
2003-04	36	52	.409
2004-05	42	48	.467
2005-06 (through 12/15)	4	16	.200

I can think of two possible explanations for this disparity: either something changed this year which makes it tougher for teams to play in back-to-back games, or it's just randomness (or other words, luck). I chalk it up to luck, based on the relatively small number of 2005-06 games so far.

By the end of 2005-06, I bet we'll see numbers that are a lot closer to the 2001-2005 results. In fact, just including the next week of games (12-16 through 12-22) already reduces the disadvantage of 4th game in 5 nights by 3.18 points and the disadvantage of the 2nd of back-to-back games by .16 points.

I've got to hand it to Kobe. Two days after getting called out here for putting up some of the "worst" individual game performances since the 1987-88, he posted a career night in a Lakers win over the Mavericks. He did all of his damage in the first 3 quarters, personally outscoring the Mavs 62-61 over that period.

In doing so, he sneaked into the top 10 overall performances--at the expense of Shaq's 61-point game, which slipped to #11 (still listed below). As usual, game performances are rated using John Hollinger's Game Scores formula; see my 12/4 post for more details.

Best Overall Performances (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Michael Jordan	03/28/1990	50	23-37	2-6	21-23	18	6	5	4	2	1	69	64.6	Win
Karl Malone	01/27/1990	33	21-26	0-0	19-23	18	2	2	3	2	0	61	60.2	Win
Michael Jordan	04/03/1988	42	21-27	0-1	17-19	4	6	4	2	1	2	59	54.7	Win
David Robinson	04/24/1994	44	26-41	1-2	18-25	14	5	2	0	8	2	71	51.8	Win
Michael Jordan	11/03/1989	47	19-31	1-2	15-17	14	6	3	3	0	1	54	51.2	Win
Reggie Miller	11/28/1992	38	16-29	4-11	21-23	5	8	1	1	0	0	57	50.4	Win
Tom Chambers	03/24/1990	42	22-32	0-0	16-18	6	4	5	1	1	2	60	50.0	Win
Kobe Bryant	12/20/2005	33	18-31	4-10	22-25	8	0	3	3	2	0	62	49.7	Win
Charles Barkley	11/30/1988	41	13-16	0-1	15-20	22	5	2	6	3	1	41	49.6	Win
Willie Burton	12/13/1994	43	12-19	5-8	24-28	8	3	2	1	1	2	53	49.6	Win
Shaquille O'Neal	03/06/2000	45	24-35	0-0	13-22	23	3	2	0	4	0	61	49.5	Win

Included in this list are a few historic games:

• MJ's top scoring performance (69 points) coincided with his rebounding career high (18), against his most-tortured opponent: the Cavs.
• David Robinson's 71-point game on the last game of the 93-94 season, putting him ahead of Shaq for the scoring title. According to the Admiral, the lottery-bound Clippers were "fighting, clawing, bumping, grinding, and double- and triple-teaming" him that night. We'll have to take his word for that.
• Career 10 ppg player Willie Burton lit up his former team (the Heat) for 53 points in 1994, in what may have been the most unexpected 50-point outburst ever. Then again, Tracy Murray, Dana Barros, Cedric Ceballos, Nick Anderson, Charles Smith, and Tony Delk all have 50-point games under their belts as well.

Warrants mentioning: All 11 of these top performances led to wins for the respective players' teams.

As previously noted, the number of points scored is the most significant determinant of the Game Scores formula, as evidenced by the fact that the average points scored for these performances was 58.9. As a result, running "best performance" analysis for players scoring less than 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 points also yields interesting results:

Best Performances By Players Scoring <10 Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Nate McMillan	02/26/1988	38	3-8	0-0	3-4	13	14	3	6	1	0	9	24.9	Win
Mookie Blaylock	12/10/1999	41	4-12	1-3	0-0	4	19	2	7	1	0	9	21.9	Win
John Stockton	03/24/1990	36	3-5	0-0	2-3	1	20	2	3	1	1	8	21.9	Win
Bo Outlaw	04/06/1998	42	2-4	0-0	4-4	11	9	0	3	1	3	8	21.3	Win
Ben Wallace	03/20/2003	35	3-6	0-0	2-4	22	2	2	2	1	9	8	20.7	Win

Best Performances By Players Scoring <20 Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
John Stockton	02/19/1988	42	8-9	0-0	3-6	2	21	0	8	4	0	19	34.4	Win
Fat Lever	04/21/1989	42	6-11	0-0	3-4	13	23	3	5	1	0	15	32.5	Win
John Stockton	02/20/1988	35	7-8	1-1	1-1	0	21	2	6	1	0	16	32.1	Win
Dikembe Mutombo	11/11/1994	53	6-7	0-0	7-10	26	1	3	0	1	9	19	30.7	Win
John Stockton	12/19/1989	36	8-12	1-2	1-2	3	27	5	2	2	0	18	30.6	Loss

Best Performances By Players Scoring <30 Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Hakeem Olajuwon	03/03/1990	40	13-25	0-0	3-4	18	10	5	5	0	11	29	41.8	Win
Magic Johnson	11/17/1989	40	6-13	1-3	11-11	8	24	0	6	3	1	24	41.0	Win
John Stockton	01/03/1989	45	12-16	0-1	2-2	1	24	3	6	1	0	26	40.9	Loss
Doc Rivers	12/29/1987	39	7-11	0-0	15-17	14	12	3	4	1	0	29	38.9	Win
Magic Johnson	04/23/1989	40	8-14	4-4	9-9	9	21	2	1	2	0	29	38.8	Win

Best Performances By Players Scoring <40 Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Tim Duncan	03/04/2003	44	14-18	0-1	7-9	21	8	1	2	2	4	35	44.7	Loss
Shaquille O'Neal	02/18/1994	41	16-19	0-0	6-7	20	3	1	1	2	5	38	44.5	Win
Charles Barkley	11/07/1992	44	11-16	0-1	15-17	21	8	2	1	3	1	37	44.0	Win
Karl Malone	01/30/1993	40	11-18	0-1	16-17	16	3	2	3	2	5	38	43.2	Win
David Robinson	02/27/1992	41	13-18	0-0	11-14	24	2	4	3	3	5	37	42.9	Win

Best Performances By Players Scoring <50 Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Charles Barkley	11/30/1988	41	13-16	0-1	15-20	22	5	2	6	3	1	41	49.6	Win
Michael Jordan	01/15/1989	41	13-23	0-3	16-17	9	11	2	8	2	0	42	46.7	Win
Hakeem Olajuwon	03/23/1996	44	16-23	0-0	14-18	19	8	3	3	6	3	46	46.7	Loss
Dominique Wilkins	12/29/1990	42	15-25	3-5	12-12	14	6	2	3	1	1	45	46.6	Win
David Robinson	01/10/1991	41	14-21	0-0	15-15	12	3	4	4	4	10	43	46.6	Win

As you can see, these performances include a lot of near-triple-doubles, triple-doubles, and even a quadruple-double by Hakeem Olajuwon from 1990 (points, rebounds, assists, and blocks). Many of the players in these lists are known for their contributions in areas other than scoring. 5 of John Stockton's games made the cut.

Again, strong individual performances led to team success, with 84% of the peak performers' teams winning their games.

Two weeks ago, I posted the best and worst individual game performances from the month of November. It prompted an email question, asking who had the best single game in the last 20 years. I haven't been able to find boxscores dating back quite that far, but the excellent Basketball-Reference.com has individual game stats starting with the 1987-88 season.

I'll post the best individual game performances since 1987-88 later this week. For today, I'll focus on the more dubious efforts. Again, game performances are rated using John Hollinger's Game Scores formula; see that earlier post for more details.

Worst Overall Performances (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
David Wesley	04/12/2001	28	0-13	0-1	0-0	1	1	4	2	4	0	0	-11.7	Win
Delaney Rudd	11/02/1990	9	0-4	0-1	0-0	0	0	5	0	6	0	0	-10.8	Loss
Larry Hughes	12/03/1999	12	0-6	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	6	0	0	-9.9	Win
Darius Miles	02/23/2005	13	0-6	0-0	0-0	2	0	5	0	4	0	0	-9.6	Loss
Tom Gugliotta	11/24/1992	21	0-8	0-1	0-0	5	2	4	1	7	0	0	-9.5	Loss
Elden Campbell	01/03/2001	11	0-6	0-0	0-0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	-9.0	Loss
Dino Radja	12/26/1993	18	0-14	0-0	0-2	10	0	5	0	1	0	0	-9.0	Loss
Tom Gugliotta	03/13/1996	33	0-13	0-2	0-0	8	2	2	0	4	0	0	-8.9	Loss
Rex Chapman	12/12/1989	30	3-20	0-2	0-2	1	1	3	0	1	0	6	-8.8	Loss
Eric Williams	05/09/2003	20	0-5	0-0	0-0	1	0	5	0	4	0	0	-8.8	Loss

Plenty of bad games here, usually involving terrible shooting, lots of turnovers, and not much else. Only one of these guys, Rex Chapman, got into the scoring column, and it took him 20 shots to get his 6 points.

A few interesting notes:

• Not surprisingly, in 8 out of these 10 performances, the team went on to lose the game as well. David Wesley's Hornets and Larry Hughes' 76ers got the only wins.
• In his first game of the 1990-91 season, Delaney Rudd managed to commit 6 turnovers and 5 fouls in just 9 minutes. It was probably one of the worst games ever by a point guard, turned in by the backup to arguably the best point guard of all time: John Stockton.
• 3 different Hornets players were responsible for 3 of the worst 10 games: Wesley, Elden Campbell, and Chapman.

Typically, the number of points scored is the most significant determinant of the Game Scores formula, which explains why the worst overall performances all involved very little scoring. As a result, it seems appropriate to look for a few additional "worst" performances: by players scoring at least 10, 20, 30, and 40 points.

Worst Performances By Players Scoring 10+ Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Jamal Mashburn	03/08/2002	39	4-18	0-0	2-5	5	0	3	0	6	0	10	-7.9	Loss
Kobe Bryant	02/23/1999	35	5-21	0-6	1-3	5	2	5	0	5	0	11	-5.8	Loss
Allen Iverson	12/21/2002	41	6-28	0-4	1-1	4	2	2	1	4	0	13	-5.0	Loss
Ron Harper	03/10/1991	38	6-25	1-3	0-0	4	5	5	2	8	1	13	-4.7	Loss
Isiah Thomas	11/06/1992	38	4-25	0-9	2-5	4	7	5	2	4	0	10	-4.6	Loss

Worst Performances By Players Scoring 20+ Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Jermaine O'Neal	12/07/2003	41	9-27	0-0	2-2	13	1	5	0	8	2	20	1.9	Loss
Allen Iverson	11/13/2001	43	8-30	0-2	9-12	1	2	4	3	7	0	25	2.1	Win
Mark Aguirre	04/03/1988	37	9-26	0-2	2-2	3	3	3	1	6	0	20	3.0	Loss
Isaiah Rider	02/02/1996	38	6-20	1-6	7-7	3	0	4	0	5	0	20	3.1	Loss
Allan Houston	11/30/2002	39	9-22	0-1	2-2	2	2	5	0	5	0	20	3.2	Win

Worst Performances By Players Scoring 30+ Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Tony Campbell	01/02/1990	48	12-29	0-2	7-9	5	1	4	0	4	0	31	11.3	Loss
Kobe Bryant	05/28/2002	45	11-29	0-2	8-11	5	3	5	1	5	0	30	11.3	Loss
Antawn Jamison	01/21/2001	45	12-25	4-5	3-6	5	1	3	1	8	0	31	11.9	Win
Paul Pierce	03/22/2003	43	8-25	3-5	12-12	6	3	6	2	9	1	31	12.3	Loss
Dale Ellis	11/11/1989	41	11-28	3-7	5-6	1	2	3	2	5	0	30	12.3	Loss

Worst Performances By Players Scoring 40+ Points (1987-88 through present)

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score	Outcome
Kobe Bryant	11/07/2002	46	17-47	0-8	7-7	9	4	3	4	5	0	41	19.0	Loss
Allen Iverson	11/28/2001	46	15-31	3-9	7-7	6	3	3	1	9	0	40	20.2	Loss
Mark Aguirre	01/11/1989	40	16-34	1-5	8-11	8	1	5	1	6	0	41	20.9	Loss
Kobe Bryant	12/25/2004	50	12-30	5-13	13-13	3	6	4	1	9	0	42	21.3	Loss
Vernon Maxwell	04/08/1996	48	15-33	7-17	4-8	3	1	2	0	1	0	41	22.1	Win

These higher-scoring games typically involved poor shooting, lots of turnovers, and minimal contributions in other categories.

Notes:

• The Mamba shows up a whopping 4 times on these lists. with the worst 40+ game and the 2nd-worst 30+ and 10+ games. The Lakers lost all 4 games, most notably last Christmas to Shaq and the Heat.
• These performances seemed to hurt their teams just as much as the overall poor performers did, with 80% of the games ending in losses.

A few new enhancements were added to the lowpost.net NBA weblog tracker tonight. Here's a quick overview of what's changed since the application launched 2+ weeks ago:

• Player/team pages. When you click a player photo or team logo, you now see all related threads and posts from the past 30 days.
• RSS 2.0 support, with feeds for recent threads, latest posts, and each player and team.
• Latest posts from all weblogs are now browsable through 7 days.

I'm hoping to finish a few more features in the next few weeks, including:

• Rankings of the most popular players and teams
• Search (players, teams, posts)
• Archived threads

As always, if you have additional ideas or feedback, feel free to pass them along.

We're one month into the season--who had the best and worst games during November?

The ratings below are based on the Game Scores formula from John Hollinger's excellent Pro Basketball Forecast 2005-06. The formula presented as a simplified version of his Player Efficiency Rating, suitable for rating single-game performances. Here's how it looks:

(Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)

Best Performances

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score
Gilbert Arenas	11/12	41	15-20	4-8	9-14	1	6	1	1	4	0	43	34.1
Michael Redd	11/02	37	12-20	3-5	14-17	6	0	4	2	0	0	41	33.6
Allen Iverson	11/19	47	14-27	1-3	8-9	2	12	0	3	2	0	37	33.3
Pau Gasol	11/26	42	13-23	0-1	10-13	15	5	0	0	2	2	36	32.9
Sam Cassell	11/02	41	14-26	4-7	3-3	5	11	3	2	1	1	35	32.5
Allen Iverson	11/30	48	11-27	2-7	16-18	5	9	1	2	2	0	40	32.5
Paul Pierce	11/09	40	9-13	3-3	8-10	7	8	3	3	1	1	29	32.3
Allen Iverson	11/16	45	16-26	1-3	9-11	0	7	3	3	4	0	42	32.1
Rashard Lewis	11/13	46	12-21	3-6	14-16	8	2	5	0	2	1	41	31.6
Allen Iverson	11/15	41	11-24	1-1	11-13	2	12	0	3	2	0	34	31.6

Gilbert Arenas had the best Game Score in the league in November, leading the Wizards to a big win over the Spurs on the 12th. He posted 43 points on just 20 field goal attempts for a very efficient game. Still, 50 performances from 26 different players in the 2004-05 season bested his 34.1 Game Score. Last year featured several amazing individual performances, including a 60+ point game, 8 50+ point games, and 67 40+ point games.

Allen Iverson had a great month, with 4 out of the top 10 overall performances. In those games, he averaged 38 points on 50% shooting, 10 assists, and 3 steals.

Great performances corresponded to wins in 8 out of the 10 top games. The only exceptions were from two of AI's games: Philadelphia losses to Cleveland and Boston.

Worst Performances

Player	Date	Min	FG	3P	FT	Reb	Ass	PF	St	TO	Blk	Pts	Score
Antoine Walker	11/25	21	1-13	0-4	0-0	2	0	4	0	1	0	2	-7.6
Eddie House	11/19	14	0-4	0-2	0-0	0	1	2	0	4	0	0	-6.9
Anthony Johnson	11/12	33	0-4	0-1	0-2	0	3	4	1	5	1	0	-6.4
Erick Dampier	11/17	20	0-2	0-0	0-0	8	0	6	0	6	0	0	-6.2
Mike James	11/30	28	0-7	0-1	0-0	2	1	3	1	3	0	0	-6.0
Erick Dampier	11/15	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	4	0	4	0	0	-5.6
Othella Harrington	11/05	13	1-3	0-0	0-0	0	1	4	0	5	0	2	-5.6
Raef LaFrentz	11/28	25	1-10	0-4	0-0	3	1	3	0	2	0	2	-5.4
Donyell Marshall	11/26	25	0-9	0-5	0-0	8	0	5	0	2	2	0	-5.3
Vladimir Radmanovic	11/22	15	1-7	0-2	0-0	2	1	2	0	3	0	2	-5.0

Erick Dampier had a terrible game against the Nuggets on the 15th. He played 11 minutes, committed 4 turnovers and 4 fouls, but failed to notch a single point, rebound, block, or assist. What's funny is that this wasn't even his worst game of the month, according to the Game Scores formula. That came 2 nights later, when he picked up 6 turnovers and 6 fouls against the lowly Hawks.

Antoine Walker heads this list with a stinker against Damp and the Mavs on Black Friday. He managed to jack up 13 shots, missing 12, in just 21 minutes of action.

In 8 out of the worst 10 performances, the teams went on to lose the game as well, despite the fact that most of these guys didn't play excessive minutes. Dallas picked up both wins, overcoming Dampier's poor play.