[Statistical Analysis] Surveying 2005-06 Predictions
Comparing experts, oddsmakers, and their regular season picks
- Calculate average predictions
- Identify areas of agreement and, more interestingly, disagreement
I also pulled in the latest gambling odds for comparison purposes. With real money on the line, these should be more credible than expert opinions.
Note: Rankings are based on predicted regular season record for all but the top three slots in each conference, which are reserved for the division champions. In other words, the Nets can be ranked #3 if they are picked to win the Atlantic division, even if other Eastern Conference teams are projected to win more games.
Eastern Conference
| Expert Predictions | |||
| Team | Avg. Rank | Std. Dev. | Vegas Rank |
| Miami | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Indiana | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2 |
| New Jersey | 3.3 | 1.0 | 3 |
| Detroit | 3.6 | 1.1 | 4 |
| Cleveland | 5.1 | 1.4 | 5 |
| Philadelphia | 7.7 | 2.2 | 7 |
| Chicago | 7.8 | 1.8 | 6 |
| Washington | 8.1 | 2.0 | 10 |
| New York | 8.4 | 1.6 | 9 |
| Milwaukee | 10.0 | 2.1 | 11 |
| Orlando | 10.2 | 1.8 | 12 |
| Boston | 10.4 | 1.7 | 8 |
| Toronto | 13.3 | 0.9 | 13 |
| Atlanta | 13.8 | 0.8 | 14 |
| Charlotte | 14.7 | 0.5 | 15 |
As you can see, there is fairly strong agreement among the top 5 teams (Miami, Indiana, New Jersey, Detroit, Cleveland) and the bottom 3 teams (Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte). There's some variation in the middle of the pack, however. This is partially a result of the fact that the middle teams will probably be tightly packed in the standings, as they have for the past few years. In fact, the latest over/under on regular season wins for Philly, Chicago, Washington, New York, and Boston are all between 40 and 42.5.
Western Conference
| Expert Predictions | |||
| Team | Avg. Rank | Std. Dev. | Vegas Rank |
| San Antonio | 1.0 | - | 1 |
| Denver | 2.3 | 0.5 | 3 |
| Houston | 4.1 | 0.3 | 4 |
| Sacramento | 4.3 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Dallas | 5.5 | 1.4 | 5 |
| Phoenix | 5.6 | 2.4 | 7 |
| Seattle | 8.4 | 2.2 | 9 |
| Memphis | 8.8 | 2.3 | 8 |
| Golden State | 9.7 | 2.4 | 10 |
| L.A. Lakers | 10.1 | 2.2 | 11 |
| Utah | 10.3 | 2.2 | 13 |
| Minnesota | 10.3 | 2.0 | 6 |
| L.A. Clippers | 10.9 | 2.9 | 12 |
| Portland | 13.9 | 1.0 | 14 |
| New Orleans | 14.8 | 0.4 | 15 |
In the West, things are much more uncertain, with the notable exception of San Antonio. The Spurs were a unanimous #1 selection, a fact that for some reason makes me want to bet against them.
Variation is much higher in the West--in fact, the top 8 overall standard deviation scores are for Western Conference teams. The Clippers were picked as high as #3 and as low as #13. The Lakers and my hometown Warriors were both picked anywhere between #6 and #14. Sacramento and Phoenix were both picked as high as #2 and as low as #9. Clearly, the outlook is uncertain for many teams.
The biggest disagreement between the experts and the oddsmakers is with Minnesota. Most writers have the T-Wolves failing to reach the playoffs, whereas Vegas puts them in with the #6 seed. Given their offseason moves, it's hard to imagine them being much better than last year's squad (which finished 9th). Then again, it was hard to understand why they dropped so far in 2004-05 after finishing 1st in 2003-04 with essentially the same lineup.
Craziest Picks
Two writers from ESPN demonstrate the most guts with their predictions:
- Chris Sheridan (ESPN.com Insider) - deviates furthest from the other writers. Picks the Clippers at #3 and the Kings at #9. Gave Memphis their highest ranking (#5).
- Ric Bucher (ESPN Magazine) - deviates furthest from the oddsmakers. Also put the Clips relatively high (#7) and the Kings low (#9). Thinks the Suns will finish #2 even without Amare for most of the year.
Maverick geniuses or misguided crackpots? We'll know in a few months.
In the West, I'd pick 1. San Antonio, 2. Denver, 3. Sacramento, 4. Houston, 5. Dallas, 6. Minnesota, 7. Phoenix, and 8. Seattle.