Everyone knows that big men make better rebounders than their smaller counterparts. Each year, league rebounding leaders are always frontcourt players. This is understandable--big men usually play closer to the basket, their height makes it easier to reach the ball, and their weight (usually muscle) makes it easier to fend off competitors.

With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to try to find out who would be the best (and worst) rebounders if size weren't a factor. In other words, if all players were shaped like Earl Boykins (or Yao Ming), who would grab the most boards?

To answer this question, I ran linear regression analysis against NBA boxscores from the last 4 years. I came up with a formula to predict rebounding results (as measured by rebounds per 40 minutes) based on height and body mass index (a measure of girth that factors out height).

Given this formula, I was able to predict each player's expected rebounding output, given his height and weight. I then compared these expected results to actual results from the 2004-2005 regular season, to determine who exceeded (or failed to meet) expectations by the widest margin. I then ranked the players by their size-adjusted rate, which is actual rebounds per 40 minutes divided by expected rebounds per 40 minutes. Average rebounders for their size achieve a size-adjusted rate of 100%. All players with at least 500 minutes played were included.

The Best (min. 500 minutes)

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Rate
1.	Reggie Evans	6' 8"	245	15.63	8.31	188%
2.	Bobby Jackson	6' 1"	185	6.34	3.56	178%
3.	Shawn Marion	6' 7"	228	11.63	7.03	165%
4.	Kevin Garnett	6'11"	220	14.19	8.64	164%
5.	Larry Hughes	6' 5"	184	6.48	4.08	159%
6.	Dan Gadzuric	6'11"	240	15.12	9.54	159%
7.	Ben Wallace	6' 9"	240	13.49	8.64	156%
8.	Danny Fortson	6' 8"	260	13.27	8.54	155%
9.	Bob Sura	6' 5"	200	7.01	4.64	151%
10.	Marcus Camby	6'11"	225	13.12	8.72	150%

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Many of the players at the top end of the scale are known to be strong rebounders. Overall rebounds-per-minute leader Reggie Evans topped the chart, nearly doubling the expectation for his size. The top three season per-game rebounders finished #4 (Kevin Garnett), #3 (Shawn Marion), and # 7 (Ben Wallace), respectively.

Notably, 3 guards also made the top ten list: Bobby Jackson, and former Warriors Larry Hughes and Bob Sura. With more than 6 rebounds per 40 minutes, the 6'1" Jackson outrebounded dozens of taller players, including 6'11" Toni Kukoc and 6'10 Rashard Lewis.

The Worst (min. 500 minutes)

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Rate
334.	Allan Houston	6' 6"	205	1.73	5.11	34%
333.	Steve Smith	6' 8"	221	3.47	6.88	50%
332.	Tim Thomas	6'10"	240	4.89	9.19	53%
331.	Peja Stojakovic	6'10"	229	4.50	8.42	53%
330.	Clifford Robinson	6'10"	240	4.95	9.19	54%
329.	Reggie Miller	6' 7"	195	3.00	5.23	57%
328.	Aleksandar Pavlovic	6' 7"	210	3.29	5.69	58%
327.	Carlos Arroyo	6' 2"	202	2.87	4.87	59%
326.	Predrag Drobnjak	6'11"	270	6.63	10.96	61%
325.	David Harrison	7' 0"	280	7.11	11.74	61%

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The players at the bottom of the size-adjusting rebounding rankings could be considered the worst rebounders in the league last year. Most of them fit into one of 3 categories:

1. Aging shooting guards (Allan Houston, Steve Smith, Reggie Miller)
2. Perimeter-focused forwards (Tim Thomas, Peja Stojakovic, Clifford Robinson, Aleksandar Pavlovic)
3. Slow-moving centers (Predrag Drobnjak, David Harrison)

Houston had the lowest rate by far. It is true that he was injured for most of the season, but he's never been much of a rebounder, even when healthy.

The Knicks

In the process of performing this analysis, I noticed that Isiah Thomas has assembled one of the worst size-adjusted rebounding teams possible. He spent tens of millions this summer acquiring bottom-shelf rebounding centers James and Curry. He was able to dump another atrocious rebounder in the process (Tim Thomas), but he also lost his best 3 size-adjusted rebounders from last year: Kurt Thomas (#20, 140%), Jerome Williams (#25, 136%), and Michael Sweetney (#43, 129%).

Here's how this year's roster looks with last year's statistics:

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Rate
62.	Malik Rose	6' 7"	245	9.25	7.67	121%
83.	Trevor Ariza	6' 8"	200	7.00	6.03	116%
122.	Antonio Davis	6' 9"	245	9.35	8.87	105%
156.	Quentin Richardson	6' 6"	230	6.75	6.84	99%
242.	Maurice Taylor	6' 9"	255	7.69	9.23	83%
289.	Jamal Crawford	6' 5"	190	3.02	4.26	71%
300.	Eddy Curry	6'11"	285	7.48	11.10	67%
312.	Stephon Marbury	6' 2"	200	3.02	4.71	64%
323.	Jerome James	7' 1"	272	7.25	11.86	61%
334.	Allan Houston	6' 6"	205	1.73	5.11	34%

This works out to 2 good rebounders (Rose and Ariza), 2 average rebounders (Davis and Richardson), 6 poor rebounders (basically, their guards and centers), and 5'9" Nate Robinson. A lot of these guys can improve their personal rates this year due to less competition from teammates, but it's likely that the team will be out-rebounded frequently in 2005-06.