With less than 48 hours before opening tipoff, I decided to compare 2005-06 regular season predictions from various league experts. I analyzed projected conference rankings from 14 professional experts and 2 bloggers, with two goals in mind:

• Calculate average predictions
• Identify areas of agreement and, more interestingly, disagreement

I also pulled in the latest gambling odds for comparison purposes. With real money on the line, these should be more credible than expert opinions.

Note: Rankings are based on predicted regular season record for all but the top three slots in each conference, which are reserved for the division champions. In other words, the Nets can be ranked #3 if they are picked to win the Atlantic division, even if other Eastern Conference teams are projected to win more games.

Eastern Conference

	Expert Predictions
Team	Avg. Rank	Std. Dev.	Vegas Rank
Miami	1.6	0.7	1
Indiana	2.0	1.1	2
New Jersey	3.3	1.0	3
Detroit	3.6	1.1	4
Cleveland	5.1	1.4	5
Philadelphia	7.7	2.2	7
Chicago	7.8	1.8	6
Washington	8.1	2.0	10
New York	8.4	1.6	9
Milwaukee	10.0	2.1	11
Orlando	10.2	1.8	12
Boston	10.4	1.7	8
Toronto	13.3	0.9	13
Atlanta	13.8	0.8	14
Charlotte	14.7	0.5	15

As you can see, there is fairly strong agreement among the top 5 teams (Miami, Indiana, New Jersey, Detroit, Cleveland) and the bottom 3 teams (Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte). There's some variation in the middle of the pack, however. This is partially a result of the fact that the middle teams will probably be tightly packed in the standings, as they have for the past few years. In fact, the latest over/under on regular season wins for Philly, Chicago, Washington, New York, and Boston are all between 40 and 42.5.

Western Conference

	Expert Predictions
Team	Avg. Rank	Std. Dev.	Vegas Rank
San Antonio	1.0	-	1
Denver	2.3	0.5	3
Houston	4.1	0.3	4
Sacramento	4.3	2.3	2
Dallas	5.5	1.4	5
Phoenix	5.6	2.4	7
Seattle	8.4	2.2	9
Memphis	8.8	2.3	8
Golden State	9.7	2.4	10
L.A. Lakers	10.1	2.2	11
Utah	10.3	2.2	13
Minnesota	10.3	2.0	6
L.A. Clippers	10.9	2.9	12
Portland	13.9	1.0	14
New Orleans	14.8	0.4	15

In the West, things are much more uncertain, with the notable exception of San Antonio. The Spurs were a unanimous #1 selection, a fact that for some reason makes me want to bet against them.

Variation is much higher in the West--in fact, the top 8 overall standard deviation scores are for Western Conference teams. The Clippers were picked as high as #3 and as low as #13. The Lakers and my hometown Warriors were both picked anywhere between #6 and #14. Sacramento and Phoenix were both picked as high as #2 and as low as #9. Clearly, the outlook is uncertain for many teams.

The biggest disagreement between the experts and the oddsmakers is with Minnesota. Most writers have the T-Wolves failing to reach the playoffs, whereas Vegas puts them in with the #6 seed. Given their offseason moves, it's hard to imagine them being much better than last year's squad (which finished 9th). Then again, it was hard to understand why they dropped so far in 2004-05 after finishing 1st in 2003-04 with essentially the same lineup.

Craziest Picks
Two writers from ESPN demonstrate the most guts with their predictions:

• Chris Sheridan (ESPN.com Insider) - deviates furthest from the other writers. Picks the Clippers at #3 and the Kings at #9. Gave Memphis their highest ranking (#5).
• Ric Bucher (ESPN Magazine) - deviates furthest from the oddsmakers. Also put the Clips relatively high (#7) and the Kings low (#9). Thinks the Suns will finish #2 even without Amare for most of the year.

Maverick geniuses or misguided crackpots? We'll know in a few months.

Just one week away from opening night ... here are a few comments on the league's offseason player moves:

Danny Ferry reads John Hollinger
The Cavaliers signed free agents Larry Hughes and Donyell Marshall, who were the top-rated players for their respective teams last year according to Hollinger's player efficiency ratings. Related note: top Knicks signee Jerome James had the worst PER of any Sonic regular last season.

If It Ain't Broke ...
The Suns had a fantastic 2004-05 season, leading the league in wins, scoring, and entertainment value. With their undersized but potent starting lineup of Nash, Johnson, Richardson, Marion, and Stoudemire, they ran most teams off the court. So, how did the front office spend their summer? Overhauling the team. Just 4 players from their current 15-man roster were with the team on opening night last year. With all of the changes plus Amare's serious injury, they'll be lucky to make the playoffs this season.

Giving up on H.S. '01
The 2001 NBA Draft included a record 4 high-schoolers taken in the first 8 picks. This summer, the Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, and DeSagana Diop projects officially ended for the Wizards, Bulls, and Cavs. Only #2 pick Tyson Chandler remains with the Bulls, although they would probably rescind their draft-night trade with the Clips for Elton Brand at this point if they could.

Maybe Belkin Was Right
Not content to have their three best players (Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Josh Smith) playing the same position, the Hawks added swingmen Marvin Williams (draft) and Joe Johnson (free agency). All 5 guys are 25 or younger and between 6'7" and 6'9".

Van Gundys Loaded
When Miami acquired Gary Payton, Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, and James Posey this summer to complement Shaq and Wade, the question on everyone's mind was: How will Stan find enough minutes for everyone? Apparently, that is not going to be a problem ... otherwise, how could Jason Kapono could be named an opening night starter?

Meanwhile, with the additions of Stromile Swift and Rafer Alston, the Rockets had a strong offseason as well. Thankfully for Jeff, last year's "by committee" experiments at point guard and power forward should be over.

• Discussion regarding the association's new dress code is a bit out of control ... but this post from freedarko.com is right on.
• Ali G + NBA on TNT: two great tastes that taste great together.
• Tough week for the Raptors: First they lose to Maccabi Tel Aviv, then they earn two spots on SI.com's all-poison team, and finally get dissed in the Post by Lamond Murray. Meanwhile, GM Rob Babcock stays busy by submitting live reports from Friday's preseason game.
• Finally, more grief for Kobe ... undeserved, but funny.

What an up-and-down summer Allan Houston had!

• 7/30/05 - New collective bargaining agreement signed, including a one-time clause allowing teams to waive players to save on luxury taxes. It is quickly dubbed the "Allan Houston Rule."
• 8/15/05 - Isiah Thomas dumps Jerome Williams instead of Houston.
• 9/30/05 - Larry Brown claims that Houston was the "best player" on the Knicks last season.
• 10/17/05 - Houston retires, after failing to recover from his chronic knee injuries.

Yes, quite a roller coaster ride ... unless you believe it was all planned. With Houston retiring due to injury, the Knicks stand to save a lot more money (thanks to insurance) than they would have by waiving him under the amnesty clause. And with Larry Brown facing great expectations from the MSG fans, overstating Houston's value may come in handy when he wants to use his absence as an excuse for a few losses.

(That's it--no more Knicks-related entries for the rest of this month.)

In baseball, the dubious distinction of "not hitting your weight" can be applied whenever a player's mass (in pounds) exceeds his batting average. In other words, he's tougher on the scales than he is on opposing pitchers. Here, I'd like to suggest a rough equivalent for NBA basketball players: "not scoring your salary."

For this metric, I compared players' per-game scoring average to their salaries for the year (in millions). As you can see from the table below, 28 players earned more than they scored for the 2004-05 season. Note: only players with at least 500 minutes for the season were included; this kept players with major injuries (like Jamal Mashburn) off the list.

Player	Salary	Points/Game	Difference
Brian Grant	$ 13,233,434	3.8	$ 9,395,199
Anfernee Hardaway	$ 14,625,000	7.5	$ 7,152,778
Theo Ratliff	$ 10,937,500	4.8	$ 6,112,103
Antonio Davis	$ 12,925,000	7.0	$ 5,910,915
Allan Houston	$ 17,531,250	11.9	$ 5,681,250
Dale Davis	$ 10,068,750	4.7	$ 5,413,012
Shaquille O'Neal	$ 27,696,430	22.9	$ 4,833,416
Alan Henderson	$  8,273,125	3.5	$ 4,773,125
Aaron McKie	$  5,500,000	2.2	$ 3,264,706
Keith Van Horn	$ 14,487,000	11.2	$ 3,261,194
Clarence Weatherspoon	$  5,899,400	3.1	$ 2,824,400
Greg Ostertag	$  4,000,000	1.6	$ 2,446,429
Adonal Foyle	$  6,500,000	4.5	$ 1,987,179
Scot Pollard	$  5,792,250	3.9	$ 1,894,291
Latrell Sprewell	$ 14,625,000	12.8	$ 1,862,500
Jerome Williams	$  6,187,500	4.5	$ 1,643,196
Shawn Bradley	$  4,000,000	2.7	$ 1,259,740
Maurice Taylor	$  8,450,000	7.3	$ 1,188,462
Kelvin Cato	$  7,992,000	7.0	$ 1,024,258
Doug Christie	$  7,550,000	6.6	$   915,385
Tim Thomas	$ 12,900,000	12.0	$   914,085
Eric Snow	$  4,875,000	4.0	$   899,691
Nick Van Exel	$ 11,933,252	11.1	$   876,648
Eddie Jones	$ 13,455,000	12.7	$   730,000
Jerome James	$  5,455,200	4.9	$   517,700
Dikembe Mutombo	$  4,496,434	4.0	$   471,434
Jason Kidd	$ 14,796,000	14.4	$   386,909
Rasho Nesterovic	$  6,160,000	5.9	$   302,857

Stealing Money
It is true that many of these guys contribute in other areas (rebounds, blocks, ... fouls, etc.), but the fact is that most of them are overpaid. In fact, Shaquille O'Neal and Jason Kidd are the only names here that arguably earned their salaries.

Evidence that most of these guys were overpaid: 5 of them were waived in the offseason as a part of the NBA's amnesty clause: Brian Grant, Aaron McKie, Clarence Weatherspoon, Jerome Williams, and Doug Christie. Another one has a contract that is so far out of line, the provision was named after him.

Looking Ahead
Judging by this year's salaries, we should see plenty of players on the 2005-06 "not scoring your salary" list as well. Amazingly, Allan Houston will earn, er, collect the 2nd-highest salary in the league this year (after Shaq), and it seems very unlikely that he'll score 19 points per game again. Brian Grant is a mortal lock to repeat, given his combined salary of over $16 million ($14.5mm from the Lakers, $1.7mm from the Suns). It's probably safe to assume that anyone else from this year's list that's still on the same deal will show up again as well (Antonio Davis, Keith Van Horn, Hardaway, Thomas, et al.).

The Knicks
I hate to call out the Knicks again, but with the highest payroll in the league, they figured to leave their mark on this list. They didn't disappoint:

• 4 were in Knicks uniforms last season: Anfernee Hardaway, Allan Houston, Jerome Williams, and Tim Thomas
• 2 others were playing under contracts originally inked with New York: Clarence Weatherspoon and Latrell Sprewell
• 1 other was signed to a new 5-year contract with New York this summer: Jerome James

10/17 UPDATE: Houston won't make the 2005-06 list, after all ... he has retired.

Everyone knows that big men make better rebounders than their smaller counterparts. Each year, league rebounding leaders are always frontcourt players. This is understandable--big men usually play closer to the basket, their height makes it easier to reach the ball, and their weight (usually muscle) makes it easier to fend off competitors.

With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to try to find out who would be the best (and worst) rebounders if size weren't a factor. In other words, if all players were shaped like Earl Boykins (or Yao Ming), who would grab the most boards?

To answer this question, I ran linear regression analysis against NBA boxscores from the last 4 years. I came up with a formula to predict rebounding results (as measured by rebounds per 40 minutes) based on height and body mass index (a measure of girth that factors out height).

Given this formula, I was able to predict each player's expected rebounding output, given his height and weight. I then compared these expected results to actual results from the 2004-2005 regular season, to determine who exceeded (or failed to meet) expectations by the widest margin. I then ranked the players by their size-adjusted rate, which is actual rebounds per 40 minutes divided by expected rebounds per 40 minutes. Average rebounders for their size achieve a size-adjusted rate of 100%. All players with at least 500 minutes played were included.

The Best (min. 500 minutes)

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Rate
1.	Reggie Evans	6' 8"	245	15.63	8.31	188%
2.	Bobby Jackson	6' 1"	185	6.34	3.56	178%
3.	Shawn Marion	6' 7"	228	11.63	7.03	165%
4.	Kevin Garnett	6'11"	220	14.19	8.64	164%
5.	Larry Hughes	6' 5"	184	6.48	4.08	159%
6.	Dan Gadzuric	6'11"	240	15.12	9.54	159%
7.	Ben Wallace	6' 9"	240	13.49	8.64	156%
8.	Danny Fortson	6' 8"	260	13.27	8.54	155%
9.	Bob Sura	6' 5"	200	7.01	4.64	151%
10.	Marcus Camby	6'11"	225	13.12	8.72	150%

View full rankings

Many of the players at the top end of the scale are known to be strong rebounders. Overall rebounds-per-minute leader Reggie Evans topped the chart, nearly doubling the expectation for his size. The top three season per-game rebounders finished #4 (Kevin Garnett), #3 (Shawn Marion), and # 7 (Ben Wallace), respectively.

Notably, 3 guards also made the top ten list: Bobby Jackson, and former Warriors Larry Hughes and Bob Sura. With more than 6 rebounds per 40 minutes, the 6'1" Jackson outrebounded dozens of taller players, including 6'11" Toni Kukoc and 6'10 Rashard Lewis.

The Worst (min. 500 minutes)

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Rate
334.	Allan Houston	6' 6"	205	1.73	5.11	34%
333.	Steve Smith	6' 8"	221	3.47	6.88	50%
332.	Tim Thomas	6'10"	240	4.89	9.19	53%
331.	Peja Stojakovic	6'10"	229	4.50	8.42	53%
330.	Clifford Robinson	6'10"	240	4.95	9.19	54%
329.	Reggie Miller	6' 7"	195	3.00	5.23	57%
328.	Aleksandar Pavlovic	6' 7"	210	3.29	5.69	58%
327.	Carlos Arroyo	6' 2"	202	2.87	4.87	59%
326.	Predrag Drobnjak	6'11"	270	6.63	10.96	61%
325.	David Harrison	7' 0"	280	7.11	11.74	61%

View full rankings

The players at the bottom of the size-adjusting rebounding rankings could be considered the worst rebounders in the league last year. Most of them fit into one of 3 categories:

1. Aging shooting guards (Allan Houston, Steve Smith, Reggie Miller)
2. Perimeter-focused forwards (Tim Thomas, Peja Stojakovic, Clifford Robinson, Aleksandar Pavlovic)
3. Slow-moving centers (Predrag Drobnjak, David Harrison)

Houston had the lowest rate by far. It is true that he was injured for most of the season, but he's never been much of a rebounder, even when healthy.

The Knicks

In the process of performing this analysis, I noticed that Isiah Thomas has assembled one of the worst size-adjusted rebounding teams possible. He spent tens of millions this summer acquiring bottom-shelf rebounding centers James and Curry. He was able to dump another atrocious rebounder in the process (Tim Thomas), but he also lost his best 3 size-adjusted rebounders from last year: Kurt Thomas (#20, 140%), Jerome Williams (#25, 136%), and Michael Sweetney (#43, 129%).

Here's how this year's roster looks with last year's statistics:

Rank	Player	Height	Weight	Rebs/40 mins	Expected	Size-Adjusted Rate
62.	Malik Rose	6' 7"	245	9.25	7.67	121%
83.	Trevor Ariza	6' 8"	200	7.00	6.03	116%
122.	Antonio Davis	6' 9"	245	9.35	8.87	105%
156.	Quentin Richardson	6' 6"	230	6.75	6.84	99%
242.	Maurice Taylor	6' 9"	255	7.69	9.23	83%
289.	Jamal Crawford	6' 5"	190	3.02	4.26	71%
300.	Eddy Curry	6'11"	285	7.48	11.10	67%
312.	Stephon Marbury	6' 2"	200	3.02	4.71	64%
323.	Jerome James	7' 1"	272	7.25	11.86	61%
334.	Allan Houston	6' 6"	205	1.73	5.11	34%

This works out to 2 good rebounders (Rose and Ariza), 2 average rebounders (Davis and Richardson), 6 poor rebounders (basically, their guards and centers), and 5'9" Nate Robinson. A lot of these guys can improve their personal rates this year due to less competition from teammates, but it's likely that the team will be out-rebounded frequently in 2005-06.

Welcome to my new weblog. I'm planning to fill it with statistical analysis and armchair observations about one of my favorite topics--the NBA.

2005-06 training camp opens tomorrow, which is cause for extra commemoration this year. Just four months ago, the threat of another lockout still loomed large. Of course, a deal was reached, clearing the way for a rather interesting offseason (more on that next week).

The upcoming season should be fun ... even though there seems to be one consensus favorite team, there are a few other strong contenders. Other things to look forward to include an awkward reunion in LA, the continued development of some potential superstars, and a possible return to the playoffs for my hometown Warriors (although I'm not holding my breath).